Football · Australia A-League · 17/10, 08:00

Prediction: Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory

Team pages: Macarthur FC · Perth Glory

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Macarthur FC1.75

Perth Glory1.24

1X2

48% 25% 26%

Macarthur FC Draw Perth Glory

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Macarthur FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Perth Glory 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Macarthur FC 2–2–2 Perth Glory (6 last)

Perth Glory3-1Macarthur FC
Macarthur FC2-2Perth Glory
Macarthur FC0-2Perth Glory
Perth Glory0-3Macarthur FC
Macarthur FC6-1Perth Glory
Macarthur FC2-2Perth Glory

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Macarthur FC 1484 · Perth Glory 1487

	Macarthur FC	Draw	Perth Glory
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Macarthur FC	Perth Glory
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	0.9 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.94
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.74 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +19’	1.91	3.70	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:10 +1010’	1.94	3.70	3.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Macarthur FC 2–2–2 Perth Glory

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Australia A-League	Perth Glory	3-1 HT 0-0	Macarthur FC
06/02/26 Australia A-League	Macarthur FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Perth Glory
30/11/25 Australia A-League	Macarthur FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Perth Glory
27/12/24 Australia A-League	Perth Glory	0-3 HT 0-2	Macarthur FC
20/10/24 Australia A-League	Macarthur FC	6-1 HT 5-0	Perth Glory
28/01/24 Australia A-League	Macarthur FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Perth Glory

Standings · Australia A-League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Auckland FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sydney FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Macarthur FC	Perth Glory
Wellington Phoenix	4-0 W	0-2 L
Adelaide United	1-3 L	0-4 L
Newcastle Jets	3-2 W	1-3 L
Auckland FC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Central Coast Mariners	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Macarthur FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Macarthur FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/04	Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
19/04	Adelaide United Australia A-League	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
12/04	Perth Glory Australia A-League	0-0	1-3	1	6	L
02/04	Newcastle Jets Australia A-League	2-2	3-2	11	1	W
21/03	Auckland FC Australia A-League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
15/03	Melbourne Victory Australia A-League	1-2	1-4	3	5	L
04/03	Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
28/02	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League	0-3	0-4	8	4	L
22/02	Newcastle Jets Australia A-League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
06/02	Perth Glory Australia A-League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D

Perth Glory

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Brisbane Roar Australia A-League	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
18/04	Sydney FC Australia A-League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
12/04	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	0-0	3-1	2	6	W
04/04	Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League	2-1	2-2	4	2	D
22/03	Melbourne City Australia A-League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
14/03	Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
08/03	Auckland FC Australia A-League	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
28/02	Brisbane Roar Australia A-League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
20/02	Adelaide United Australia A-League	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
13/02	Newcastle Jets Australia A-League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Macarthur FC win (48%). Probabilities: Macarthur FC 48%, draw 25%, Perth Glory 26%.

How many goals are expected in Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Macarthur FC 1.75 · Perth Glory 1.24), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.