Football · Australia A-League · 17/10, 10:40

Prediction: Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

Team pages: Central Coast Mariners · Newcastle Jets

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Central Coast Mariners1.33

Newcastle Jets2.07

1X2

23% 23% 53%

Central Coast Mariners Draw Newcastle Jets

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Central Coast Mariners 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDLDWL

Newcastle Jets 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDDWDD

Head-to-head

Central Coast Mariners 2–2–2 Newcastle Jets (6 last)

Newcastle Jets4-0Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners0-0Newcastle Jets
Central Coast Mariners3-2Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets6-0Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners2-2Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets1-2Central Coast Mariners

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Central Coast Mariners 1504 · Newcastle Jets 1501

	Central Coast Mariners	Draw	Newcastle Jets
Our model	23%	23%	54%
Market	23%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Central Coast Mariners	Newcastle Jets
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.90

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.37 ★
2	1.80 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:55 +8’	3.80	3.80	1.80
15:42 +1’	4.00▲	3.90▲	1.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +832’	3.93	4.37	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Coast Mariners 2–2–2 Newcastle Jets

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Australia A-League	Newcastle Jets	4-0 HT 3-0	Central Coast Mariners
28/02/26 Australia A-League	Central Coast Mariners	0-0 HT 0-0	Newcastle Jets
19/10/25 Australia A-League	Central Coast Mariners	3-2 HT 2-1	Newcastle Jets
12/04/25 Australia A-League	Newcastle Jets	6-0 HT 2-0	Central Coast Mariners
01/02/25 Australia A-League	Central Coast Mariners	2-2 HT 1-0	Newcastle Jets
22/11/24 Australia A-League	Newcastle Jets	1-2 HT 0-0	Central Coast Mariners

Standings · Australia A-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Auckland FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sydney FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Central Coast Mariners	Newcastle Jets
Auckland FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Melbourne Victory	1-4 L	2-2 D
Adelaide United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Macarthur FC	3-1 W	2-3 L
Western Sydney Wanderers	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Central Coast Mariners (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Central Coast Mariners

WDWDLDLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Newcastle Jets Australia A-League	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/04	Auckland FC Australia A-League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/04	Brisbane Roar Australia A-League	0-1	2-2	1	5	D
07/04	Melbourne City Australia A-League	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
04/04	Perth Glory Australia A-League	1-2	2-2	6	2	D
21/03	Melbourne Victory Australia A-League	1-0	1-4	4	1	L
14/03	Adelaide United Australia A-League	0-0	1-1	0	3	D
04/03	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
28/02	Newcastle Jets Australia A-League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
22/02	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League	0-1	3-2	1	5	W

Newcastle Jets

DWLWLDDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Sydney FC Australia A-League	0-0	1-1	8	10	D
09/05	Sydney FC Australia A-League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
25/04	Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
17/04	Melbourne Victory Australia A-League	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
11/04	Adelaide United Australia A-League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
02/04	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	2-2	2-3	6	1	L
22/03	Sydney FC Australia A-League	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
14/03	Auckland FC Australia A-League	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
07/03	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
28/02	Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newcastle Jets win (53%). Probabilities: Central Coast Mariners 23%, draw 23%, Newcastle Jets 53%.

How many goals are expected in Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Central Coast Mariners 1.33 · Newcastle Jets 2.07), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.