Football · Australia A-League · 18/10, 04:00

Prediction: Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory

Team pages: Melbourne Victory

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Wellington Phoenix1.4

Melbourne Victory1.66

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Wellington Phoenix Draw Melbourne Victory

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wellington Phoenix 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWWLWL

Melbourne Victory 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLDDWL

Head-to-head

Wellington Phoenix 2–4 Melbourne Victory (6 last)

Melbourne Victory0-1Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix2-3Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory5-1Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix2-3Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory1-0Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix1-0Melbourne Victory

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wellington Phoenix 1475 · Melbourne Victory 1575

	Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
Our model	31%	26%	43%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory (rating 1475 vs 1575).
H2H favours Melbourne Victory: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wellington Phoenix	Melbourne Victory
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.8	3.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.77 ★
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.29

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +1’	3.00	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:10 +1211’	2.88	3.77	2.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix 2–0–4 Melbourne Victory

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Australia A-League	Melbourne Victory	0-1 HT 0-0	Wellington Phoenix
06/02/26 Australia A-League	Wellington Phoenix	2-3 HT 1-2	Melbourne Victory
29/12/25 Australia A-League	Melbourne Victory	5-1 HT 2-1	Wellington Phoenix
12/04/25 Australia A-League	Wellington Phoenix	2-3 HT 1-2	Melbourne Victory
14/02/25 Australia A-League	Melbourne Victory	1-0 HT 0-0	Wellington Phoenix
24/11/24 Australia A-League	Wellington Phoenix	1-0 HT 0-0	Melbourne Victory

Standings · Australia A-League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Auckland FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sydney FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wellington Phoenix	Melbourne Victory
Macarthur FC	0-4 L	4-1 W
Western Sydney Wanderers	2-1 W	2-0 W
Melbourne City	0-2 L	3-1 W
Adelaide United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sydney FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Auckland FC	0-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wellington Phoenix

DLLDWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/04	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
18/04	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League	1-1	2-1	10	1	W
12/04	Melbourne City Australia A-League	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
05/04	Melbourne Victory Australia A-League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
21/03	Brisbane Roar Australia A-League	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
14/03	Perth Glory Australia A-League	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
06/03	Adelaide United Australia A-League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
01/03	Sydney FC Australia A-League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
21/02	Auckland FC Australia A-League	0-4	0-5	6	6	L
13/02	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League	0-2	2-2	2	3	D

Melbourne Victory

WDDWWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/05	Sydney FC Australia A-League	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
25/04	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
17/04	Newcastle Jets Australia A-League	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
11/04	Auckland FC Australia A-League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
05/04	Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
21/03	Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League	0-1	4-1	8	1	W
15/03	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	2-1	4-1	3	5	W
07/03	Sydney FC Australia A-League	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/02	Adelaide United Australia A-League	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
21/02	Melbourne City Australia A-League	1-1	3-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory win (42%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix 31%, draw 27%, Melbourne Victory 42%.

How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Wellington Phoenix 1.4 · Melbourne Victory 1.66), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.