Football · Australia A-League · 31/10, 05:00
Prediction: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Team pages: Newcastle Jets · Wellington Phoenix
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Newcastle Jets1.86
Wellington Phoenix1.43
1X2
Newcastle Jets
Draw
Wellington Phoenix
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Newcastle Jets
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Wellington Phoenix
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newcastle Jets
2–1–3
Wellington Phoenix
(6 last)
- Newcastle Jets4-1Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix1-3Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets1-2Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix2-1Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets1-1Wellington Phoenix
- Newcastle Jets1-2Wellington Phoenix
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newcastle Jets 1488 · Wellington Phoenix 1513
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Wellington Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Wellington Phoenix: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newcastle Jets | Wellington Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.8 | 3.2 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle Jets 2–1–3 Wellington Phoenix
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 Australia A-League | Newcastle Jets | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 14/12/25 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Newcastle Jets |
| 06/04/25 Australia A-League | Newcastle Jets | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 28/12/24 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Newcastle Jets |
| 19/04/24 Australia A-League | Newcastle Jets | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 27/01/24 Australia A-League | Newcastle Jets | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Wellington Phoenix |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Sydney FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newcastle Jets | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Macarthur FC | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Central Coast Mariners | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Sydney FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Melbourne Victory | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Adelaide United | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 5 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newcastle Jets
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/10 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 10 | D |
| 09/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 02/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 14/03 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
Wellington Phoenix
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 05/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 01/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle Jets win (47%). Probabilities: Newcastle Jets 47%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 29%.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Newcastle Jets 1.86 · Wellington Phoenix 1.43), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.