Football · Australia A-League · 01/11, 09:00

Prediction: Perth Glory vs Adelaide United

Team pages: Perth Glory · Adelaide United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Perth Glory1.35

Adelaide United1.54

1X2

32% 27% 41%

Perth Glory Draw Adelaide United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Perth Glory 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDWDWLL

Adelaide United 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDDWWDLL

Head-to-head

Perth Glory 1–1–4 Adelaide United (6 last)

Perth Glory1-3Adelaide United
Adelaide United4-0Perth Glory
Perth Glory0-1Adelaide United
Perth Glory4-1Adelaide United
Adelaide United2-2Perth Glory
Perth Glory2-4Adelaide United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Perth Glory 1458 · Adelaide United 1590

	Perth Glory	Draw	Adelaide United
Our model	32%	27%	41%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide United (rating 1458 vs 1590).
H2H favours Adelaide United: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Perth Glory	Adelaide United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.6	2.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +3’	2.60	3.50	2.50
03:09 +7’	2.80▲	3.50	2.30▼
01:18 +4’	2.90▲	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Perth Glory 1–1–4 Adelaide United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 World Club Friendlies	Perth Glory	1-3 HT 0-1	Adelaide United
20/02/26 Australia A-League	Adelaide United	4-0 HT 2-0	Perth Glory
20/12/25 Australia A-League	Perth Glory	0-1 HT 0-1	Adelaide United
12/04/25 Australia A-League	Perth Glory	4-1 HT 2-1	Adelaide United
29/11/24 Australia A-League	Adelaide United	2-2 HT 0-1	Perth Glory
07/04/24 Australia A-League	Perth Glory	2-4 HT 2-3	Adelaide United

Standings · Australia A-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wellington Phoenix	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Western Sydney Wanderers	2	1	1	0	5	2	4
3	Macarthur FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Sydney FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Brisbane Roar	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Auckland FC	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
7	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
8	Melbourne Victory	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
9	Central Coast Mariners	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
9	Melbourne City	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
11	Adelaide United	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	Perth Glory	2	0	0	2	2	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Perth Glory	Adelaide United
Macarthur FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
Sydney FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Central Coast Mariners	2-2 D	1-1 D
Melbourne City	1-1 D	2-1 W
Wellington Phoenix	0-2 L	1-1 D
Auckland FC	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide United (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Perth Glory

DDLDDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Brisbane Roar Australia A-League	0-2	1-2	2	5	L
17/10	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
25/04	Brisbane Roar Australia A-League	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
18/04	Sydney FC Australia A-League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
12/04	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	0-0	3-1	2	6	W
04/04	Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League	2-1	2-2	4	2	D
22/03	Melbourne City Australia A-League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
14/03	Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
08/03	Auckland FC Australia A-League	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
28/02	Brisbane Roar Australia A-League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Adelaide United

DDWDDWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sydney FC Australia A-League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
15/05	Auckland FC Australia A-League	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
09/05	Auckland FC Australia A-League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
26/04	Melbourne City Australia A-League	0-1	2-1	10	8	W
19/04	Macarthur FC Australia A-League	0-1	3-1	12	3	W
11/04	Newcastle Jets Australia A-League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
03/04	Auckland FC Australia A-League	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
20/03	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League	2-1	4-2	6	1	W
14/03	Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
06/03	Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League	0-1	1-1	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Adelaide United win (41%). Probabilities: Perth Glory 32%, draw 27%, Adelaide United 41%.

How many goals are expected in Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Perth Glory 1.35 · Adelaide United 1.54), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.