Football · Australia A-League · 31/10, 07:00
Prediction: Melbourne City vs Sydney FC
Team pages: Melbourne City · Sydney FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.16Total
Melbourne City1.32
Sydney FC0.83
1X2
Melbourne City
Draw
Sydney FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne City
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Sydney FC
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne City
4–2–0
Sydney FC
(6 last)
- Sydney FC0-1Melbourne City
- Melbourne City0-0Sydney FC
- Melbourne City5-1Sydney FC
- Sydney FC2-3Melbourne City
- Sydney FC1-1Melbourne City
- Melbourne City2-0Sydney FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne City 1513 · Sydney FC 1534
| Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Melbourne City: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne City | Sydney FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne City 4–2–0 Sydney FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/26 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Melbourne City |
| 03/01/26 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sydney FC |
| 03/05/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Sydney FC |
| 29/03/25 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Melbourne City |
| 24/02/24 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Melbourne City |
| 03/11/23 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sydney FC |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Sydney FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne City | Sydney FC |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Auckland FC | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Brisbane Roar | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Perth Glory | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 22/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Sydney FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 09/05 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne City vs Sydney FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne City win (48%). Probabilities: Melbourne City 48%, draw 28%, Sydney FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne City vs Sydney FC?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Melbourne City 1.32 · Sydney FC 0.83), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne City vs Sydney FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.