Football · Australia A-League · 01/11, 05:00
Prediction: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Team pages: Melbourne Victory · Central Coast Mariners
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Melbourne Victory2.06
Central Coast Mariners0.82
1X2
Melbourne Victory
Draw
Central Coast Mariners
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne Victory
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Central Coast Mariners
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Victory
2–2–2
Central Coast Mariners
(6 last)
- Melbourne Victory4-1Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners1-0Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory3-0Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners0-0Melbourne Victory
- Central Coast Mariners1-1Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory0-1Central Coast Mariners
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory 1533 · Central Coast Mariners 1485
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory (rating 1533 vs 1485).
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Victory | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.4 | 0.7 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory 2–2–2 Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 01/02/26 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 08/03/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 18/10/24 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 25/05/24 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 25/02/24 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Sydney FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Victory | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Newcastle Jets | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Auckland FC | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Macarthur FC | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 07/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 04/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory win (66%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory 66%, draw 21%, Central Coast Mariners 13%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Melbourne Victory 2.06 · Central Coast Mariners 0.82), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.