Football · Australia A-League · 06/11, 09:40
Prediction: Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners
Team pages: Sydney FC · Central Coast Mariners
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Sydney FC1.81
Central Coast Mariners0.81
1X2
Sydney FC
Draw
Central Coast Mariners
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Sydney FC
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Central Coast Mariners
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sydney FC
3–1–2
Central Coast Mariners
(6 last)
- Central Coast Mariners1-2Sydney FC
- Sydney FC2-0Central Coast Mariners
- Sydney FC4-1Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners2-1Sydney FC
- Central Coast Mariners0-0Sydney FC
- Sydney FC1-2Central Coast Mariners
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sydney FC 1552 · Central Coast Mariners 1475
| Sydney FC | Draw | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney FC (rating 1552 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Sydney FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sydney FC | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.4 | 0.7 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney FC 3–1–2 Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Sydney FC |
| 25/10/25 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 11/01/25 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 08/12/24 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sydney FC |
| 18/05/24 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sydney FC |
| 10/05/24 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Central Coast Mariners |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sydney FC | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Auckland FC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Newcastle Jets | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Melbourne Victory | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Perth Glory | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Brisbane Roar | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sydney FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sydney FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 09/05 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 04/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sydney FC win (61%). Probabilities: Sydney FC 61%, draw 23%, Central Coast Mariners 16%.
How many goals are expected in Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Sydney FC 1.81 · Central Coast Mariners 0.81), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.