Football · Australia A-League · 07/11, 05:00
Prediction: Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
Team pages: Auckland FC · Wellington Phoenix
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Auckland FC1.71
Wellington Phoenix1.23
1X2
Auckland FC
Draw
Wellington Phoenix
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Auckland FC
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Wellington Phoenix
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Auckland FC
6–0
Wellington Phoenix
(6 last)
- Wellington Phoenix0-5Auckland FC
- Auckland FC3-1Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix1-2Auckland FC
- Auckland FC6-1Wellington Phoenix
- Auckland FC2-1Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix0-2Auckland FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland FC 1494 · Wellington Phoenix 1529
| Auckland FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Auckland FC: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland FC | Wellington Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.7 | 3.3 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland FC 6–0–0 Wellington Phoenix
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 0-5 HT 0-4 | Auckland FC |
| 06/12/25 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 08/11/25 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Auckland FC |
| 22/02/25 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 6-1 HT 3-0 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 07/12/24 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 02/11/24 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Auckland FC |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland FC | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 2-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Melbourne City | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Adelaide United | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Central Coast Mariners | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Melbourne Victory | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Phoenix (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 24/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 17/10 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
Wellington Phoenix
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 05/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland FC win (48%). Probabilities: Auckland FC 48%, draw 26%, Wellington Phoenix 26%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Auckland FC 1.71 · Wellington Phoenix 1.23), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.