Football · Australia A-League · 07/11, 09:40
Prediction: Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Team pages: Melbourne City · Western Sydney Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Melbourne City1.64
Western Sydney Wanderers1.36
1X2
Melbourne City
Draw
Western Sydney Wanderers
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne City
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Western Sydney Wanderers
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne City
2–3–1
Western Sydney Wanderers
(6 last)
- Melbourne City3-0Western Sydney Wanderers
- Western Sydney Wanderers1-1Melbourne City
- Western Sydney Wanderers1-1Melbourne City
- Western Sydney Wanderers2-2Melbourne City
- Melbourne City0-2Western Sydney Wanderers
- Western Sydney Wanderers1-2Melbourne City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne City 1517 · Western Sydney Wanderers 1478
| Melbourne City | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Melbourne City: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne City | Western Sydney Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 3.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne City 2–3–1 Western Sydney Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Western Sydney Wanderers |
| 07/02/26 Australia A-League | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Melbourne City |
| 18/10/25 Australia A-League | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Melbourne City |
| 19/04/25 Australia A-League | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Melbourne City |
| 30/11/24 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Western Sydney Wanderers |
| 20/04/24 Australia A-League | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Melbourne City |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne City | Western Sydney Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Melbourne Victory | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Auckland FC | 1-3 L | 5-2 W |
| Adelaide United | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Brisbane Roar | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Wellington Phoenix | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne City (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 22/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Western Sydney Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 16/10 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 20/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/03 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 07/03 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne City win (43%). Probabilities: Melbourne City 43%, draw 26%, Western Sydney Wanderers 31%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers?
The model expects 3 goals (Melbourne City 1.64 · Western Sydney Wanderers 1.36), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.