Football · Australia A-League · 08/11, 07:00
Prediction: Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
Team pages: Adelaide United · Melbourne Victory
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Adelaide United1.31
Melbourne Victory1.45
1X2
Adelaide United
Draw
Melbourne Victory
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Adelaide United
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Melbourne Victory
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Adelaide United
2–1–3
Melbourne Victory
(6 last)
- Melbourne Victory1-1Adelaide United
- Adelaide United2-1Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory2-1Adelaide United
- Melbourne Victory5-3Adelaide United
- Adelaide United3-2Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory1-0Adelaide United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adelaide United 1521 · Melbourne Victory 1516
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Melbourne Victory: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Adelaide United | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.7 | 2.7 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide United 2–1–3 Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Adelaide United |
| 17/01/26 Australia A-League | Adelaide United | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 13/12/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Adelaide United |
| 29/03/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 5-3 HT 2-1 | Adelaide United |
| 18/01/25 Australia A-League | Adelaide United | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Melbourne Victory |
| 21/09/24 Australia Cup | Melbourne Victory | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Adelaide United |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Perth Glory | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 11 | Newcastle Jets | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Adelaide United | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Auckland FC | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Melbourne City | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Macarthur FC | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Newcastle Jets | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 4-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adelaide United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/10 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 20/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory win (40%). Probabilities: Adelaide United 33%, draw 27%, Melbourne Victory 40%.
How many goals are expected in Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Adelaide United 1.31 · Melbourne Victory 1.45), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.