Football · USA MLS · 07/10, 02:30

Prediction: Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Team pages: Chicago Fire · Vancouver Whitecaps

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Chicago Fire1.53

Vancouver Whitecaps1.76

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Chicago Fire Draw Vancouver Whitecaps

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Fire 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDDLLW

Vancouver Whitecaps 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWLWD

Head-to-head

Chicago Fire 2–1–3 Vancouver Whitecaps (6 last)

Vancouver Whitecaps1-3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps1-3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-2Vancouver Whitecaps
Chicago Fire1-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps3-2Chicago Fire

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1507 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1514

	Chicago Fire	Draw	Vancouver Whitecaps
Our model	33%	25%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Fire	Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.6	2.7 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.90

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.86
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.26 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +7’	2.80	3.90	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:35 +1078’	2.86	3.87	2.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 2–1–3 Vancouver Whitecaps

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-3 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire
31/08/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-1 HT 0-1	Vancouver Whitecaps
24/07/22 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-3 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
23/07/20 USA MLS is Back Tournament	Chicago Fire	0-2 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
13/04/19 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-1 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
08/07/18 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-2 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
4	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
5	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
8	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
9	Seattle Sounders	26	9	8	9	33	34	35
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	26	6	3	17	31	63	21

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Fire

WWWDDDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
20/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
13/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
10/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	4	D
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Vancouver Whitecaps

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	DC United USA MLS	2-1	3-3	7	1	D
20/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-0	8	7	W
14/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
10/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
06/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	6	7	L
30/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	4-0	5-0	9	6	W
20/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
17/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vancouver Whitecaps win (43%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 33%, draw 24%, Vancouver Whitecaps 43%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Chicago Fire 1.53 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1.76), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.