Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 04:30

Prediction: LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers

Team pages: LA Galaxy · Portland Timbers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

LA Galaxy1.92

Portland Timbers1.35

1X2

50% 24% 26%

LA Galaxy Draw Portland Timbers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

LA Galaxy 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLDWW

Portland Timbers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWDLLL

Head-to-head

LA Galaxy 2–2–2 Portland Timbers (6 last)

Portland Timbers1-1LA Galaxy
Portland Timbers0-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy2-4Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-1LA Galaxy
Portland Timbers4-2LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy3-2Portland Timbers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LA Galaxy 1517 · Portland Timbers 1479

	LA Galaxy	Draw	Portland Timbers
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LA Galaxy	Portland Timbers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:35 +5’	1.85	3.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LA Galaxy 2–2–2 Portland Timbers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-1 HT 1-1	LA Galaxy
23/01/26 America Friendlies	Portland Timbers	0-1	LA Galaxy
28/04/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	2-4 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
16/03/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-1 HT 0-0	LA Galaxy
19/09/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	4-2 HT 2-1	LA Galaxy
21/07/24 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	3-2 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	60	29	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LA Galaxy	Portland Timbers
Minnesota United	3-2 W	5-4 W
Seattle Sounders	1-1 D	2-1 W
San Diego FC	1-3 L	3-1 W
San Jose Earthquakes	1-0 W	1-3 L
FC Dallas	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LA Galaxy

DLWDLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-2	3-2	5	4	W
20/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-2	3-2	9	2	W
13/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
10/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
06/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
23/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
20/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
16/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
02/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Portland Timbers

WLWDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-3	1-3	9	3	L
20/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
13/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
06/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-2	5-4	4	4	W
30/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
20/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	0	3	W
17/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LA Galaxy win (50%). Probabilities: LA Galaxy 50%, draw 24%, Portland Timbers 26%.

How many goals are expected in LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers?

The model expects 3.27 goals (LA Galaxy 1.92 · Portland Timbers 1.35), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.