Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 03:30

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Real Salt Lake2.01

San Jose Earthquakes1.31

1X2

53% 24% 24%

Real Salt Lake Draw San Jose Earthquakes

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLLLLW

San Jose Earthquakes 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDWWDW

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 3–3 San Jose Earthquakes (6 last)

Real Salt Lake2-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes4-0Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes0-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake0-2San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes2-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-1San Jose Earthquakes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1440 · San Jose Earthquakes 1486

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Jose Earthquakes (rating 1440 vs 1486).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:35 +4’	1.75	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 3–0–3 San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
23/02/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	4-0 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
06/10/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
25/08/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	0-2 HT 0-2	San Jose Earthquakes
17/09/23 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	2-1 HT 2-1	Real Salt Lake
23/04/23 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-1 HT 1-0	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	60	29	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Salt Lake	San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo	1-2 L	1-0 W
Los Angeles FC	2-2 D	2-2 D
Minnesota United	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Salt Lake

DLLLDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
24/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

San Jose Earthquakes

LLLLDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-0	3-1	5	3	W
20/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	18	4	D
13/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-1	3-2	3	10	W
06/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	4	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Salt Lake win (53%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 53%, draw 24%, San Jose Earthquakes 24%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Real Salt Lake 2.01 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.