Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 04:30

Prediction: Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC

Team pages: Los Angeles FC · Austin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Los Angeles FC1.85

Austin FC0.67

1X2

66% 22% 13%

Los Angeles FC Draw Austin FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Los Angeles FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Austin FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Los Angeles FC 2–2–2 Austin FC (6 last)

Austin FC0-0Los Angeles FC
Austin FC1-4Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC2-1Austin FC
Austin FC1-0Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC0-1Austin FC
Los Angeles FC1-1Austin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Los Angeles FC 1483 · Austin FC 1518

	Los Angeles FC	Draw	Austin FC
Our model	65%	24%	12%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Los Angeles FC	Austin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6.9	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:03 +37’	1.40	4.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Los Angeles FC 2–2–2 Austin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Los Angeles FC
03/11/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-4 HT 1-3	Los Angeles FC
30/10/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Austin FC
13/10/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Los Angeles FC
15/03/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Austin FC
19/09/24 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Austin FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	60	29	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Los Angeles FC	Austin FC
FC Dallas	0-1 L	0-0 D
San Jose Earthquakes	2-2 D	1-1 D
Portland Timbers	1-1 D	2-1 W
Colorado Rapids	0-1 L	1-1 D
San Diego FC	0-1 L	3-3 D
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Austin FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Los Angeles FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
20/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
13/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	13	4	L
10/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
06/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
23/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	1	2	D

Austin FC

LLWDWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	4	1	D
20/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
14/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	7	W
10/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Los Angeles FC win (66%). Probabilities: Los Angeles FC 66%, draw 22%, Austin FC 13%.

How many goals are expected in Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Los Angeles FC 1.85 · Austin FC 0.67), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.