Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 04:30

Prediction: San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo

Team pages: San Diego FC · Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

San Diego FC1.5

Houston Dynamo1.03

1X2

48% 27% 26%

San Diego FC Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

San Diego FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLLLDD

Houston Dynamo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDWLDL

Head-to-head

San Diego FC 1–2 Houston Dynamo (3 last)

Houston Dynamo1-0San Diego FC
Houston Dynamo2-4San Diego FC
San Diego FC3-4Houston Dynamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Diego FC 1481 · Houston Dynamo 1517

	San Diego FC	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Diego FC	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:33 +7’	1.91	3.70	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Diego FC 1–0–2 Houston Dynamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 1-0	San Diego FC
05/10/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	2-4 HT 1-0	San Diego FC
06/07/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	3-4 HT 1-2	Houston Dynamo

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	60	29	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Diego FC	Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes	2-3 L	0-1 L
LA Galaxy	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: San Diego FC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Diego FC

DWLWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	1	1	D
21/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
14/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-5	11	4	L
10/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	2-3	1	10	L
06/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
30/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
02/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	2	D

Houston Dynamo

WWWLDDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
20/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
13/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
30/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Diego FC win (48%). Probabilities: San Diego FC 48%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 26%.

How many goals are expected in San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 2.53 goals (San Diego FC 1.5 · Houston Dynamo 1.03), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.