Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 08/08, 23:00

Prediction: CD Platense vs CD Marathon

Team pages: CD Platense · CD Marathon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

CD Platense1.01

CD Marathon1.18

1X2

30% 30% 39%

CD Platense Draw CD Marathon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CD Platense 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLWLL

CD Marathon 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDDDDW

Head-to-head

CD Platense 1–3–2 CD Marathon (6 last)

CD Platense3-1CD Marathon
CD Marathon2-2CD Platense
CD Platense2-2CD Marathon
CD Marathon3-0CD Platense
CD Marathon1-0CD Platense
CD Platense1-1CD Marathon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Platense 1449 · CD Marathon 1531

	CD Platense	Draw	CD Marathon
Our model	30%	32%	39%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Marathon (rating 1449 vs 1531).
H2H favours CD Marathon: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Platense	CD Marathon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	0.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.8	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.20 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.48 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:24 +3’	3.00	3.10	2.20
13:29 +3’	2.90▼	3.10	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +3’	2.86	2.69	2.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Platense 1–3–2 CD Marathon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	3-1 HT 1-1	CD Marathon
13/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	2-2 HT 1-1	CD Platense
21/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	2-2 HT 2-0	CD Marathon
19/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	3-0 HT 2-0	CD Platense
08/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Platense
12/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	1-1 HT 0-1	CD Marathon

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Motagua	1	1	0	3	0	3
1	Real Espana	1	1	0	3	0	3
3	Genesis de Comayagua	1	1	0	2	0	3
3	CD Olimpia	1	1	0	2	0	3
5	CD Marathon	1	1	0	1	0	3
5	Olancho FC	1	1	0	1	0	3
7	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1	0	1	0	1	0
7	Estrella Roja	1	0	1	0	1	0
9	Atletico Choloma	1	0	1	0	2	0
9	Lobos UPNFM	1	0	1	0	2	0
11	Juticalpa	1	0	1	0	3	0
11	CD Platense	1	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Platense	CD Marathon
Real Espana	0-3 L	1-1 D
CD Olimpia	0-4 L	1-0 W
Atletico Choloma	0-1 L	0-1 L
Motagua	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Platense

LLWLDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
01/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-4	5	2	L
26/04	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
19/04	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
16/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
08/04	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
05/04	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	3	10	W
02/04	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
19/03	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	8	6	L

CD Marathon

LLWLWDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
31/07	Herediano CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
25/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
16/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
03/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
01/05	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	4	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Platense vs CD Marathon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Marathon win (39%). Probabilities: CD Platense 30%, draw 30%, CD Marathon 39%.

How many goals are expected in CD Platense vs CD Marathon?

The model expects 2.19 goals (CD Platense 1.01 · CD Marathon 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Platense vs CD Marathon?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.