Football · Finland Kolmonen · 17/07, 18:30
Prediction: FC LeKi vs TP-T
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.23Total
FC LeKi2.55
TP-T1.67
1X2
FC LeKi
Draw
TP-T
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC LeKi
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
TP-T
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC LeKi 1476 · TP-T 1477
| FC LeKi | Draw | TP-T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Market | 56% | 20% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.23 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC LeKi | TP-T | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.7 | 1.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/14/57% | 38/38/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.2 | 1.9 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lasten | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | TPV II | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Tampere Utd II | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 25 |
| 4 | NoPS | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 20 |
| 5 | Ylojarvi United | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 6 | FC Haka Juniors | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 23 | 15 |
| 7 | Saaksjærven Loiske | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
| 8 | FC LeKi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 13 |
| 9 | TP-T | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 11 |
| 10 | Fish United | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 8 |
| 11 | ACE | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 4 |
| 12 | TP-49 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC LeKi | TP-T |
|---|---|---|
| FC Haka Juniors | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| FC Lasten | 1-3 L | 2-4 L |
| TPV II | 4-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Tampere Utd II | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| NoPS | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| TP-49 | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Fish United | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| ACE | 4-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Ylojarvi United | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 5 L | 3 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC LeKi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 25/06 | FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | TPV II Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-2 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | NoPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | TP-49 Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | Fish United Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | VPS Vaasa Finland Cup |
1-4 | 1-9 | – | – | L |
| 27/04 | ACE Finland Kolmonen |
2-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
TP-T
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | ACE Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/06 | Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | NoPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | TP-49 Finland Kolmonen |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 23/04 | Fish United Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | TPV II Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC LeKi vs TP-T?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC LeKi win (56%). Probabilities: FC LeKi 56%, draw 20%, TP-T 24%.
How many goals are expected in FC LeKi vs TP-T?
The model expects 4.23 goals (FC LeKi 2.55 · TP-T 1.67), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in FC LeKi vs TP-T?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.