Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/07, 14:00

Prediction: MP II vs IPS Edustus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.14Total

MP II2.07

IPS Edustus2.07

1X2

39% 22% 39%

MP II Draw IPS Edustus

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

MP II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLWLW

IPS Edustus 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDDWW

Head-to-head

MP II 4–1–1 IPS Edustus (6 last)

IPS Edustus2-0MP II
MP II4-3IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus2-2MP II
MP II5-2IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus1-2MP II
MP II9-2IPS Edustus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MP II 1484 · IPS Edustus 1586

	MP II	Draw	IPS Edustus
Our model	39%	22%	39%
Market	39%	21%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 4.14 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IPS Edustus (rating 1484 vs 1586).
H2H favours MP II: 4-1-1.
High corners: 14.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MP II	IPS Edustus
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.8	3.3 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.36 ★
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.22
2	2.63 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:52 +11’	2.00	4.33	2.63
12:58 +4’	2.30▲	4.20▼	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:02	2.36	4.22	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MP II 4–1–1 IPS Edustus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	IPS Edustus	2-0	MP II
11/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	MP II	4-3 HT 3-0	IPS Edustus
13/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	IPS Edustus	2-2 HT 2-2	MP II
17/04/24 Finland Kolmonen	MP II	5-2 HT 2-0	IPS Edustus
03/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	IPS Edustus	1-2 HT 1-2	MP II
21/06/23 Finland Kolmonen	MP II	9-2 HT 6-0	IPS Edustus

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kultsu FC	12	9	2	1	36	9	29
2	IPS Edustus	11	8	3	0	26	13	27
3	PeKa	12	8	2	2	37	17	26
4	MiPK	12	7	2	3	31	18	23
5	HaPK	12	7	1	4	28	21	22
6	LAUTP	12	5	2	5	25	26	17
7	KoPa	12	5	2	5	17	23	17
8	KJP	12	5	1	6	19	16	16
9	MP II	11	4	0	7	23	22	12
10	Edustus STPS	12	2	1	9	13	28	7
11	Kumu	12	2	1	9	15	45	7
12	LAUTP II	12	0	1	11	4	36	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MP II	IPS Edustus
HaPK	4-1 W	3-2 W
PeKa	1-3 L	3-3 D
Edustus STPS	4-0 W	2-2 D
MiPK	1-2 L	3-2 W
LAUTP II	4-2 W	2-0 W
Kumu	6-2 W	2-1 W
Kultsu FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
KoPa	1-3 L	1-0 W
KJP	1-3 L	1-0 W
LAUTP	0-2 L	6-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 6 L	7 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: IPS Edustus (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MP II

LLLLWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
24/06	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
12/06	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
03/06	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-2	11	4	W
29/05	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
20/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
15/05	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/05	KJP Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	9	2	L
29/04	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L

IPS Edustus

WWDWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/07	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
27/06	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
16/06	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
11/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
05/06	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	11	5	W
28/05	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
23/05	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
08/05	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	KJP Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MP II vs IPS Edustus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MP II win (39%). Probabilities: MP II 39%, draw 22%, IPS Edustus 39%.

How many goals are expected in MP II vs IPS Edustus?

The model expects 4.14 goals (MP II 2.07 · IPS Edustus 2.07), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MP II vs IPS Edustus?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.