Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/07, 18:00

Prediction: LoPa vs ESPA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

LoPa1.25

ESPA2.15

1X2

21% 21% 58%

LoPa Draw ESPA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LoPa 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLLWW

ESPA 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

LoPa 1–0 ESPA (1 last)

ESPA0-1LoPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LoPa 1494 · ESPA 1578

	LoPa	Draw	ESPA
Our model	21%	22%	57%
Market	22%	20%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1494 vs 1578).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LoPa	ESPA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	3.9 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.50

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +4’	4.10	4.50	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LoPa 1–0–0 ESPA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	0-1 HT 0-0	LoPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	11	8	1	2	46	19	25
2	ESPA	11	8	1	2	30	11	25
3	Poxyt	12	7	1	4	28	23	22
4	LePa	12	6	2	4	21	21	20
5	NuPS	12	5	4	3	22	14	19
6	LoPa	11	5	1	5	16	17	16
7	Gilla FC	12	4	2	6	25	26	14
8	MPS	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	11	3	3	5	18	29	12
10	GrIFK Reservi	11	3	2	6	20	24	11
11	HooGee	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
12	EPS Reservi	11	2	3	6	17	35	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LoPa	ESPA
Gilla FC	3-2 W	6-1 W
Poxyt	2-0 W	4-1 W
GrIFK Reservi	1-2 L	2-4 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-3 L	2-1 W
HooGee	1-2 L	3-0 W
NuPS	2-2 D	2-0 W
EIF Academy	2-3 L	1-1 D
MPS	2-0 W	4-0 W
LePa	1-3 L	2-0 W
EPS Reservi	1-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ESPA (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LoPa

WLWLDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
16/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
12/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
29/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
15/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-3	5	1	L
08/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
26/04	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	5	1	W

ESPA

WWWWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
28/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	9	5	L
12/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
05/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
29/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	11	5	W
21/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-0	11	1	W
08/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-1	3	5	W
03/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
23/04	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LoPa vs ESPA?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ESPA win (58%). Probabilities: LoPa 21%, draw 21%, ESPA 58%.

How many goals are expected in LoPa vs ESPA?

The model expects 3.4 goals (LoPa 1.25 · ESPA 2.15), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LoPa vs ESPA?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.