Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: IFK Mariehamn II vs PiPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

IFK Mariehamn II2.62

PiPS1.15

1X2

69% 17% 14%

IFK Mariehamn II Draw PiPS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Mariehamn II 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWWWW

PiPS 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWLD

Head-to-head

IFK Mariehamn II 3–0 PiPS (3 last)

PiPS0-4IFK Mariehamn II
PiPS0-2IFK Mariehamn II
IFK Mariehamn II4-0PiPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Mariehamn II 1604 · PiPS 1431

	IFK Mariehamn II	Draw	PiPS
Our model	68%	18%	14%
Market	69%	16%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Mariehamn II (rating 1604 vs 1431).
H2H favours IFK Mariehamn II: 3-0-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Mariehamn II	PiPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	13/63/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.5	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.30▲	Bet365 1.30
X	6.25 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75
2	7.50 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
08:08 +4’	1.22	6.25	7.50
10:11 +2’	1.30▲	5.75▼	6.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn II 3–0–0 PiPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	PiPS	0-4 HT 0-2	IFK Mariehamn II
04/10/25 Finland Kolmonen	PiPS	0-2	IFK Mariehamn II
19/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	IFK Mariehamn II	4-0	PiPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	11	9	0	2	31	10	27
2	EuPa	11	8	1	2	24	8	25
3	PIF Parainen	11	7	2	2	24	10	23
4	VG-62	11	7	0	4	17	12	21
5	KaaPo	12	6	0	6	24	24	18
6	SalPa 2	11	5	2	4	15	14	17
7	MaPS	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
8	Peimari United	11	2	6	3	17	16	12
9	LTU	11	3	1	7	8	16	10
10	PiPS	11	2	2	7	9	22	8
11	JyTy	12	2	2	8	13	33	8
12	ACF	12	1	4	7	8	24	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Mariehamn II	PiPS
JyTy	5-0 W	1-0 W
LTU	1-0 W	1-2 L
EuPa	2-1 W	0-3 L
VG-62	2-0 W	0-3 L
Peimari United	3-1 W	2-2 D
KaaPo	1-2 L	1-0 W
PIF Parainen	2-1 W	1-3 L
MaPS	2-3 L	2-3 L
SalPa 2	4-1 W	1-2 L
ACF	5-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Mariehamn II (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Mariehamn II

WWLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	11	1	W
04/07	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
27/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
06/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
23/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
02/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-1	6	5	W
25/04	ACF Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W

PiPS

LLDLLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
17/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
11/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
03/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	0	0	W
28/05	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	10	3	L
22/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
08/05	ACF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/04	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
24/04	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn II vs PiPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Mariehamn II win (69%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn II 69%, draw 17%, PiPS 14%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn II vs PiPS?

The model expects 3.77 goals (IFK Mariehamn II 2.62 · PiPS 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn II vs PiPS?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.