Football · New Zealand Southern League · 18/07, 04:00
Prediction: Selwyn United vs Nelson Suburbs
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.62Total
Selwyn United1.31
Nelson Suburbs3.31
1X2
Selwyn United
Draw
Nelson Suburbs
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Selwyn United
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Nelson Suburbs
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Selwyn United
0–1–5
Nelson Suburbs
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Selwyn United 1378 · Nelson Suburbs 1591
| Selwyn United | Draw | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 6% | 10% | 84% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.62 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nelson Suburbs (rating 1378 vs 1591).
- H2H favours Nelson Suburbs: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Selwyn United | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 3.7 | 3.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 2 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/20/80% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.2 | 2.8 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Selwyn United 0–1–5 Nelson Suburbs
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Selwyn United |
| 31/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 2-5 HT 1-4 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 08/06/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Selwyn United |
| 14/07/24 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 4-4 HT 4-4 | Selwyn United |
| 13/04/24 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 11/06/23 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 7-1 | Selwyn United |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 25 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 25 | 21 |
| 5 | Nomads United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 21 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 13 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Selwyn United | Nelson Suburbs |
|---|---|---|
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Coastal Spirit | 0-5 L | 5-3 W |
| Christchurch United | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Cashmere Technical | 1-4 L | 0-6 L |
| Northern AFC | 1-3 L | 11-0 W |
| Wanaka AFC | 2-1 W | 6-0 W |
| Ferrymead Bays | 0-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Nomads United | 3-5 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 6 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Nelson Suburbs (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Selwyn United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 27/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-5 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
Nelson Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 11-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Northern AFC New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 17 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
2-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 27/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Selwyn United vs Nelson Suburbs?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nelson Suburbs win (80%). Probabilities: Selwyn United 8%, draw 12%, Nelson Suburbs 80%.
How many goals are expected in Selwyn United vs Nelson Suburbs?
The model expects 4.62 goals (Selwyn United 1.31 · Nelson Suburbs 3.31), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Selwyn United vs Nelson Suburbs?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.