Football · New Zealand Southern League · 12/07, 02:00
Prediction: Coastal Spirit vs Nomads United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.71Total
Coastal Spirit2.05
Nomads United1.65
1X2
Coastal Spirit
Draw
Nomads United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Coastal Spirit
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Nomads United
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Coastal Spirit
3–1–2
Nomads United
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coastal Spirit 1513 · Nomads United 1560
| Coastal Spirit | Draw | Nomads United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 47% | 22% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nomads United (rating 1513 vs 1560).
- H2H favours Coastal Spirit: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Coastal Spirit | Nomads United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.9 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.2 | 3.5 / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coastal Spirit 3–1–2 Nomads United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 New Zealand Cup | Nomads United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Coastal Spirit |
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Coastal Spirit |
| 26/02/26 World Club Friendlies | Coastal Spirit | 1-5 HT 0-1 | Nomads United |
| 03/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Nomads United |
| 25/04/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 2-4 HT 2-1 | Coastal Spirit |
| 20/03/25 World Club Friendlies | Nomads United | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Coastal Spirit |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 22 |
| 4 | Nomads United | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 21 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 25 | 18 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 10 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Coastal Spirit | Nomads United |
|---|---|---|
| Selwyn United | 5-0 W | 5-3 W |
| Nelson Suburbs | 3-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Northern AFC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Christchurch United | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Cashmere Technical | 1-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Wanaka AFC | 4-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Ferrymead Bays | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Nomads United (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coastal Spirit
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 27/04 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 4-2 | 17 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
Nomads United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 27/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 12 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coastal Spirit vs Nomads United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Coastal Spirit win (47%). Probabilities: Coastal Spirit 47%, draw 23%, Nomads United 31%.
How many goals are expected in Coastal Spirit vs Nomads United?
The model expects 3.71 goals (Coastal Spirit 2.05 · Nomads United 1.65), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Coastal Spirit vs Nomads United?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.