Football · New Zealand Southern League · 17/07, 09:15
Prediction: Ferrymead Bays vs Coastal Spirit
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.46Total
Ferrymead Bays1.83
Coastal Spirit1.63
1X2
Ferrymead Bays
Draw
Coastal Spirit
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ferrymead Bays
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Coastal Spirit
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferrymead Bays
3–1–2
Coastal Spirit
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferrymead Bays 1526 · Coastal Spirit 1535
| Ferrymead Bays | Draw | Coastal Spirit | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 43% | 23% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ferrymead Bays: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferrymead Bays | Coastal Spirit | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.5 | 2.9 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferrymead Bays 3–1–2 Coastal Spirit
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 12/03/26 World Club Friendlies | Ferrymead Bays | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Coastal Spirit |
| 17/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 16/05/25 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Coastal Spirit |
| 02/08/24 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Coastal Spirit |
| 05/07/24 New Zealand Cup | Ferrymead Bays | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Coastal Spirit |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 25 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 25 | 21 |
| 5 | Nomads United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 21 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 13 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ferrymead Bays | Coastal Spirit |
|---|---|---|
| Christchurch United | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Cashmere Technical | 0-4 L | 1-5 L |
| Northern AFC | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Wanaka AFC | 5-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Nelson Suburbs | 3-2 W | 3-5 L |
| Nomads United | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Selwyn United | 3-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 6 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Coastal Spirit (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferrymead Bays
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup |
2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 27/04 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Coastal Spirit
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 27/04 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 4-2 | 17 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferrymead Bays vs Coastal Spirit?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferrymead Bays win (42%). Probabilities: Ferrymead Bays 42%, draw 23%, Coastal Spirit 34%.
How many goals are expected in Ferrymead Bays vs Coastal Spirit?
The model expects 3.46 goals (Ferrymead Bays 1.83 · Coastal Spirit 1.63), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferrymead Bays vs Coastal Spirit?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.