Football · New Zealand Southern League · 18/07, 04:00
Prediction: Wanaka AFC vs Christchurch United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.78Total
Wanaka AFC1.04
Christchurch United2.74
1X2
Wanaka AFC
Draw
Christchurch United
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Wanaka AFC
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Christchurch United
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wanaka AFC
0–4
Christchurch United
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wanaka AFC 1394 · Christchurch United 1493
| Wanaka AFC | Draw | Christchurch United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 16% | 72% |
| Market | 12% | 15% | 73% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Christchurch United (rating 1394 vs 1493).
- H2H favours Christchurch United: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wanaka AFC | Christchurch United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 3.7 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.2 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wanaka AFC 0–0–4 Christchurch United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Wanaka AFC |
| 31/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Wanaka AFC | 0-7 HT 0-3 | Christchurch United |
| 05/07/25 New Zealand Cup | Wanaka AFC | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Christchurch United |
| 07/06/25 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 7-0 HT 6-0 | Wanaka AFC |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 25 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 25 | 21 |
| 5 | Nomads United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 21 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 13 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wanaka AFC | Christchurch United |
|---|---|---|
| Northern AFC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Nelson Suburbs | 0-6 L | 1-3 L |
| Ferrymead Bays | 0-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Nomads United | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Selwyn United | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Coastal Spirit | 2-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Cashmere Technical | 0-9 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Christchurch United (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wanaka AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 16/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-6 | 0-9 | 2 | 2 | L |
Christchurch United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wanaka AFC vs Christchurch United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Christchurch United win (73%). Probabilities: Wanaka AFC 12%, draw 16%, Christchurch United 73%.
How many goals are expected in Wanaka AFC vs Christchurch United?
The model expects 3.78 goals (Wanaka AFC 1.04 · Christchurch United 2.74), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Wanaka AFC vs Christchurch United?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.