Football · New Zealand Southern League · 12/07, 03:30
Prediction: Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.08Total
Nelson Suburbs2.58
Northern AFC1.49
1X2
Nelson Suburbs
Draw
Northern AFC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nelson Suburbs
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Northern AFC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nelson Suburbs
1–1
Northern AFC
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nelson Suburbs 1563 · Northern AFC 1484
| Nelson Suburbs | Draw | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 19% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 20% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nelson Suburbs (rating 1563 vs 1484).
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nelson Suburbs | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 8.5 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nelson Suburbs 1–0–1 Northern AFC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 New Zealand Cup | Nelson Suburbs | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Northern AFC |
| 12/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Northern AFC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Nelson Suburbs |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 22 |
| 4 | Nomads United | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 21 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 25 | 18 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 10 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nelson Suburbs | Northern AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Wanaka AFC | 6-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Nomads United | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Coastal Spirit | 5-3 W | 1-2 L |
| Ferrymead Bays | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Christchurch United | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cashmere Technical | 0-6 L | 0-6 L |
| Selwyn United | 6-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Nelson Suburbs (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nelson Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Northern AFC New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 17 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
2-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 27/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Northern AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/04 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nelson Suburbs win (60%). Probabilities: Nelson Suburbs 60%, draw 20%, Northern AFC 20%.
How many goals are expected in Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC?
The model expects 4.08 goals (Nelson Suburbs 2.58 · Northern AFC 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.