Football · New Zealand Southern League · 18/07, 02:00
Prediction: Nomads United vs Dunedin City Royals FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Nomads United1.93
Dunedin City Royals FC1.02
1X2
Nomads United
Draw
Dunedin City Royals FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nomads United
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Dunedin City Royals FC
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nomads United
3–1–2
Dunedin City Royals FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nomads United 1524 · Dunedin City Royals FC 1431
| Nomads United | Draw | Dunedin City Royals FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 60% | 20% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nomads United (rating 1524 vs 1431).
- H2H favours Nomads United: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nomads United | Dunedin City Royals FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.9 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nomads United 3–1–2 Dunedin City Royals FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Dunedin City Royals FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Nomads United |
| 12/07/25 New Zealand Southern League | Dunedin City Royals FC | 3-4 HT 3-2 | Nomads United |
| 12/04/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 28/06/24 New Zealand Southern League | Dunedin City Royals FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Nomads United |
| 06/04/24 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 30/07/23 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 25 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 25 | 21 |
| 5 | Nomads United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 21 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 13 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nomads United | Dunedin City Royals FC |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Spirit | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Christchurch United | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Cashmere Technical | 2-2 D | 0-9 L |
| Nelson Suburbs | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Northern AFC | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Wanaka AFC | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Ferrymead Bays | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Nomads United (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nomads United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Dunedin City Royals FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup |
0-4 | 0-9 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-5 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/04 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nomads United vs Dunedin City Royals FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nomads United win (59%). Probabilities: Nomads United 59%, draw 22%, Dunedin City Royals FC 20%.
How many goals are expected in Nomads United vs Dunedin City Royals FC?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Nomads United 1.93 · Dunedin City Royals FC 1.02), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nomads United vs Dunedin City Royals FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.