Football · Hungary NB III · 08/11, 11:00

Prediction: Diosgyori VTK II vs Tarpa SC

Team pages: Diosgyori VTK II · Tarpa SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Diosgyori VTK II2.23

Tarpa SC1.23

1X2

59% 22% 19%

Diosgyori VTK II Draw Tarpa SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Diosgyori VTK II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLLWLL

Tarpa SC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLWLD

Head-to-head

Diosgyori VTK II 1–1 Tarpa SC (2 last)

Tarpa SC2-1Diosgyori VTK II
Diosgyori VTK II2-1Tarpa SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diosgyori VTK II 1496 · Tarpa SC 1438

	Diosgyori VTK II	Draw	Tarpa SC
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diosgyori VTK II (rating 1496 vs 1438).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diosgyori VTK II	Tarpa SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.1	0.7 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:33 +2’	1.53	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Diosgyori VTK II 1–0–1 Tarpa SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Hungary NB III	Tarpa SC	2-1 HT 1-0	Diosgyori VTK II
01/11/25 Hungary NB III	Diosgyori VTK II	2-1 HT 0-1	Tarpa SC

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ozd Sajovolgye	14	12	0	2	45	11	36
2	Cigand SE	14	11	2	1	36	10	35
3	DEAC	14	9	2	3	33	18	29
4	Debreceni II	14	9	1	4	34	23	28
5	Mateszalkai MTK	14	6	5	3	24	16	23
6	Godolloi SK	14	7	1	6	23	16	22
7	Kisvarda II	14	5	7	2	21	15	22
8	Diosgyori VTK II	14	5	4	5	24	22	19
9	FC Tiszaujvaros	14	5	2	7	17	21	17
10	Fuzesabonyi SC	14	5	2	7	16	20	17
11	Egri FC	14	5	2	7	14	29	17
12	Hajdunanas FK	14	4	2	8	22	39	14
13	Salgotarjani BTC	14	4	1	9	11	22	13
14	Tiszafured VSE	14	4	1	9	9	21	13
15	Tarpa SC	14	3	1	10	12	32	10
16	Nyiregyhaza II	14	1	1	12	13	39	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diosgyori VTK II	Tarpa SC
Tiszafured VSE	1-2 L	0-1 L
Cigand SE	0-3 L	1-3 L
FC Tiszaujvaros	4-0 W	0-3 L
Salgotarjani BTC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Hajdunanas FK	2-2 D	2-2 D
Mateszalkai MTK	2-2 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Diosgyori VTK II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diosgyori VTK II

DDWWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Tiszafured VSE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
24/10	Cigand SE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
17/10	FC Tiszaujvaros Hungary NB III	1-0	4-0	5	0	W
11/10	Ozd Sajovolgye Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
03/10	Egri FC Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
26/09	DEAC Hungary NB III	2-1	5-2	5	6	W
19/09	Fuzesabonyi SC Hungary NB III	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
05/09	Salgotarjani BTC Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/08	Hajdunanas FK Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	10	1	D
26/08	Mateszalkai MTK Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	–	–	D

Tarpa SC

LLLLWLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hajdunanas FK Hungary NB III	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Mateszalkai MTK Hungary NB III	0-3	0-4	2	6	L
17/10	Godolloi SK Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	Kisvarda II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	2	5	L
03/10	Debreceni II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Nyiregyhaza II Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Salgotarjani BTC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	Tiszafured VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	Cigand SE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
26/08	FC Tiszaujvaros Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diosgyori VTK II vs Tarpa SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Diosgyori VTK II win (59%). Probabilities: Diosgyori VTK II 59%, draw 22%, Tarpa SC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Diosgyori VTK II vs Tarpa SC?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Diosgyori VTK II 2.23 · Tarpa SC 1.23), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Diosgyori VTK II vs Tarpa SC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.