Football · Hungary NB III · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: Monori SE vs ESMTK

Team pages: Monori SE · ESMTK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Monori SE1.44

ESMTK2.03

1X2

26% 24% 50%

Monori SE Draw ESMTK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Monori SE 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLLDWW

ESMTK 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Monori SE 1–3–2 ESMTK (6 last)

ESMTK2-1Monori SE
Monori SE2-1ESMTK
ESMTK0-0Monori SE
Monori SE1-1ESMTK
ESMTK2-2Monori SE
Monori SE2-3ESMTK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monori SE 1502 · ESMTK 1603

	Monori SE	Draw	ESMTK
Our model	26%	23%	50%
Market	26%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1502 vs 1603).
H2H favours ESMTK: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monori SE	ESMTK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	2.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:53 +17’	3.40	3.75	1.80
14:10 +5’	3.50▲	3.60▼	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monori SE 1–3–2 ESMTK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	2-1 HT 1-1	Monori SE
15/11/25 Hungary NB III	Monori SE	2-1 HT 2-1	ESMTK
27/07/25 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	0-0 HT 0-0	Monori SE
22/09/24 Hungary NB III	Monori SE	1-1 HT 0-0	ESMTK
13/08/23 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	2-2 HT 0-1	Monori SE
19/03/23 Hungary NB III	Monori SE	2-3 HT 0-0	ESMTK

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	15	14	1	0	47	11	43
2	ESMTK	15	10	4	1	38	14	34
3	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	16	7	6	3	29	21	27
4	III Keruleti TUE	15	8	2	5	17	10	26
5	Ujpest II	15	7	4	4	35	22	25
6	Vasas SC II	16	6	6	4	33	19	24
7	Monori SE	15	5	6	4	26	25	21
8	Csepel	15	5	5	5	27	24	20
9	FC Dabas	16	5	4	7	22	34	19
10	Bekescsabai Elore SE	15	4	5	6	23	23	17
11	Kispest Honved II	15	4	4	7	26	24	16
12	Szolnoki Mav FC	15	3	6	6	31	35	15
13	Sandorfalvi SK	15	3	4	8	9	31	13
14	Hodmezovasarhelyi	15	2	6	7	19	32	12
15	Szegedi VSE	16	2	4	10	21	44	10
16	BKV Elore SC	15	2	3	10	17	51	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monori SE	ESMTK
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	1-0 W	1-1 D
III Keruleti TUE	2-1 W	2-0 W
Vasas SC II	1-1 D	2-0 W
Gyulai Termal	1-4 L	1-1 D
Bekescsabai Elore SE	0-2 L	3-3 D
Ujpest II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Szolnoki Mav FC	4-4 D	3-2 W
Kispest Honved II	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ESMTK (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monori SE

WDWDDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
31/10	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
24/10	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
17/10	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
10/10	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
03/10	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
19/09	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	1-2	4-4	–	–	D
05/09	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	0-1	3-1	7	5	W
30/08	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
26/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-0	4-1	5	5	W

ESMTK

DWDWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
31/10	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
25/10	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
17/10	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
11/10	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	12	4	W
03/10	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
27/09	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	3-0	6-0	2	5	W
20/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monori SE vs ESMTK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ESMTK win (50%). Probabilities: Monori SE 26%, draw 24%, ESMTK 50%.

How many goals are expected in Monori SE vs ESMTK?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Monori SE 1.44 · ESMTK 2.03), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Monori SE vs ESMTK?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.