Football · Hungary NB III · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: Balatonalmadi SE vs Dorogi FC

Team pages: Balatonalmadi SE · Dorogi FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Balatonalmadi SE0.83

Dorogi FC2.83

1X2

7% 12% 81%

Balatonalmadi SE Draw Dorogi FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Balatonalmadi SE 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDDLWLLW

Dorogi FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWDWW

Head-to-head

Balatonalmadi SE 0–1 Dorogi FC (1 last)

Dorogi FC4-1Balatonalmadi SE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Balatonalmadi SE 1451 · Dorogi FC 1591

	Balatonalmadi SE	Draw	Dorogi FC
Our model	8%	14%	78%
Market	6%	11%	83%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dorogi FC (rating 1451 vs 1591).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Balatonalmadi SE	Dorogi FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.6	2.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

115.00

X8.50

21.11

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.85

2 (-2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:53 +17’	15.00	8.50	1.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Balatonalmadi SE 0–0–1 Dorogi FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Hungary NB III	Dorogi FC	4-1 HT 2-1	Balatonalmadi SE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	15	11	3	1	41	12	36
2	FC Tatabanya	15	10	4	1	34	11	34
3	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	15	9	5	1	37	15	32
4	Puskas Academy II	15	8	2	5	34	25	26
5	Komarom VSE	15	7	4	4	24	19	25
6	Sarisapi BSE	15	7	3	5	22	22	24
7	SC Sopron	15	6	4	5	24	22	22
8	MTE 1904	15	5	7	3	22	16	22
9	Zalaegerszegi TE II	15	6	3	6	30	27	21
10	Bicskei TC	15	6	1	8	28	29	19
11	Györi ETO II	15	5	2	8	18	22	17
12	Veszprem FC	15	4	5	6	28	29	17
13	Kiraly SZE	15	3	5	7	18	29	14
14	Papai Perutz	15	3	2	10	11	29	11
15	Balatonalmadi SE	15	3	2	10	15	43	11
16	1908 SZAC Budapest	15	0	2	13	6	42	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Balatonalmadi SE	Dorogi FC
Papai Perutz	2-1 W	2-1 W
Zalaegerszegi TE II	2-6 L	2-4 L
Puskas Academy II	1-1 D	4-0 W
SC Sopron	2-1 W	3-0 W
FC Tatabanya	0-4 L	2-2 D
Bicskei TC	2-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dorogi FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Balatonalmadi SE

LLWDDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Papai Perutz Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	0	6	W
01/11	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	2-3	2-6	–	–	L
25/10	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
18/10	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	11	5	W
11/10	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
03/10	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	5	7	D
27/09	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	5	7	L
26/08	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	1-1	2-4	–	–	L

Dorogi FC

LWWWDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sarisapi BSE Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/10	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
24/10	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
17/10	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
11/10	Györi ETO II Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
04/10	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	7	8	D
27/09	MTE 1904 Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
19/09	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
05/09	Papai Perutz Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
29/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	0-2	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Balatonalmadi SE vs Dorogi FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dorogi FC win (81%). Probabilities: Balatonalmadi SE 7%, draw 12%, Dorogi FC 81%.

How many goals are expected in Balatonalmadi SE vs Dorogi FC?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Balatonalmadi SE 0.83 · Dorogi FC 2.83), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Balatonalmadi SE vs Dorogi FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.