Football · Hungary NB III · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Budafoki MTE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi

Team pages: Budafoki MTE · Kaposvari Rakoczi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Budafoki MTE1.65

Kaposvari Rakoczi1.99

1X2

31% 23% 45%

Budafoki MTE Draw Kaposvari Rakoczi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Budafoki MTE 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLDLDL

Kaposvari Rakoczi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Budafoki MTE 0–2 Kaposvari Rakoczi (2 last)

Budafoki MTE0-1Kaposvari Rakoczi
Kaposvari Rakoczi2-1Budafoki MTE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Budafoki MTE 1489 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1537

	Budafoki MTE	Draw	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Our model	32%	23%	45%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaposvari Rakoczi (rating 1489 vs 1537).
H2H favours Kaposvari Rakoczi: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Budafoki MTE	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	2.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:28 +4’	2.88	3.80	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Budafoki MTE 0–0–2 Kaposvari Rakoczi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/19 Hungary NB II	Budafoki MTE	0-1 HT 0-1	Kaposvari Rakoczi
28/10/18 Hungary NB II	Kaposvari Rakoczi	2-1 HT 1-1	Budafoki MTE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	13	12	1	0	40	4	37
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	13	9	1	3	37	17	28
3	Ivancsa	13	8	0	5	31	24	24
4	Ferencvarosi TC II	13	7	3	3	32	18	24
5	Majosi SE	13	7	3	3	30	27	24
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	13	6	2	5	24	22	20
7	Erdi VSE	13	5	4	4	29	28	19
8	MTK Budapest II	12	6	0	6	31	25	18
9	Budafoki MTE	13	5	3	5	24	22	18
10	BFC Siofok	13	5	2	6	22	18	17
11	PEAC FC	13	4	4	5	17	21	16
12	Paksi SE II	13	3	4	6	28	24	13
13	Budaorsi SC	13	3	3	7	20	40	12
14	Sarbogard SE	13	1	2	10	10	39	5
15	Szekszardi	13	0	0	13	6	52	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Budafoki MTE	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Ivancsa	1-2 L	1-0 W
Erdi VSE	2-2 D	1-3 L
Ferencvarosi TC II	1-3 L	2-2 D
Majosi SE	3-3 D	1-4 L
Pecsi MFC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	2-4 L	4-2 W
Paksi SE II	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kaposvari Rakoczi (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Budafoki MTE

DWWWLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
24/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
17/10	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
10/10	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-3	8	4	D
03/10	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
26/09	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-0	2-4	3	2	L
19/09	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
29/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
26/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	4-0	15	3	W
15/08	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Kaposvari Rakoczi

WWLLDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	2-2	4-3	9	7	W
17/10	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	4	5	W
10/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
26/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
05/09	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
26/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Budafoki MTE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kaposvari Rakoczi win (45%). Probabilities: Budafoki MTE 31%, draw 23%, Kaposvari Rakoczi 45%.

How many goals are expected in Budafoki MTE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Budafoki MTE 1.65 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1.99), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Budafoki MTE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.