Football · Hungary NB III · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: BFC Siofok vs Pecsi MFC

Team pages: BFC Siofok · Pecsi MFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

BFC Siofok1.13

Pecsi MFC1.99

1X2

21% 22% 57%

BFC Siofok Draw Pecsi MFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

BFC Siofok 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDWWWL

Pecsi MFC 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

BFC Siofok 1–2–3 Pecsi MFC (6 last)

Pecsi MFC4-0BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok0-5Pecsi MFC
Pecsi MFC1-1BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok1-0Pecsi MFC
Pecsi MFC2-2BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok0-1Pecsi MFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFC Siofok 1522 · Pecsi MFC 1639

	BFC Siofok	Draw	Pecsi MFC
Our model	20%	24%	56%
Market	21%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pecsi MFC (rating 1522 vs 1639).
H2H favours Pecsi MFC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFC Siofok	Pecsi MFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	3 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:18 +10’	4.20	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Siofok 1–2–3 Pecsi MFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Hungary NB III	Pecsi MFC	4-0 HT 4-0	BFC Siofok
21/09/25 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	0-5 HT 0-4	Pecsi MFC
30/03/25 Hungary NB III	Pecsi MFC	1-1 HT 0-1	BFC Siofok
08/09/24 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	1-0 HT 0-0	Pecsi MFC
04/02/24 Hungary NB II	Pecsi MFC	2-2 HT 1-2	BFC Siofok
06/08/23 Hungary NB II	BFC Siofok	0-1 HT 0-1	Pecsi MFC

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	10	9	1	0	30	4	28
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	9	5	1	3	23	14	16
3	Budafoki MTE	9	5	1	3	17	12	16
4	PEAC FC	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
5	Ivancsa	9	5	0	4	21	20	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC II	9	4	3	2	19	13	15
7	BFC Siofok	9	4	2	3	16	11	14
8	Majosi SE	9	4	2	3	18	18	14
9	Dunaharaszti MTK	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	4	0	4	21	14	12
11	Erdi VSE	9	3	3	3	21	21	12
12	Budaorsi SC	9	3	2	4	16	26	11
13	Paksi SE II	10	1	3	6	19	23	6
14	Sarbogard SE	10	1	2	7	9	24	5
15	Szekszardi	9	0	0	9	4	38	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFC Siofok	Pecsi MFC
Dunaharaszti MTK	1-2 L	2-0 W
Sarbogard SE	1-1 D	6-0 W
Budafoki MTE	0-0 D	2-1 W
MTK Budapest II	2-1 W	3-0 W
PEAC FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Kaposvari Rakoczi	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pecsi MFC (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFC Siofok

DLLWDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
05/09	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
29/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
26/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
09/08	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
25/07	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	4	1	D

Pecsi MFC

WWWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	11	1	W
26/09	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-0	3-0	6	4	W
05/09	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	4	5	W
26/08	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
15/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
08/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
25/07	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFC Siofok vs Pecsi MFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pecsi MFC win (57%). Probabilities: BFC Siofok 21%, draw 22%, Pecsi MFC 57%.

How many goals are expected in BFC Siofok vs Pecsi MFC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (BFC Siofok 1.13 · Pecsi MFC 1.99), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in BFC Siofok vs Pecsi MFC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.