Football · Hungary NB III · 08/11, 11:00

Prediction: Paksi SE II vs Pecsi MFC

Team pages: Paksi SE II · Pecsi MFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Paksi SE II1.01

Pecsi MFC2.39

1X2

14% 19% 67%

Paksi SE II Draw Pecsi MFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Paksi SE II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWDWW

Pecsi MFC 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Paksi SE II 0–1–3 Pecsi MFC (4 last)

Paksi SE II1-1Pecsi MFC
Pecsi MFC3-0Paksi SE II
Pecsi MFC2-0Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II0-2Pecsi MFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paksi SE II 1500 · Pecsi MFC 1633

	Paksi SE II	Draw	Pecsi MFC
Our model	14%	19%	67%
Market	14%	19%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pecsi MFC (rating 1500 vs 1633).
H2H favours Pecsi MFC: 3-1-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paksi SE II	Pecsi MFC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	2.9 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	3.1 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.75

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:18 +17’	6.50	4.75	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paksi SE II 0–1–3 Pecsi MFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	1-1 HT 1-0	Pecsi MFC
27/07/25 Hungary NB III	Pecsi MFC	3-0 HT 2-0	Paksi SE II
14/03/25 Hungary NB III	Pecsi MFC	2-0 HT 0-0	Paksi SE II
27/08/24 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	0-2 HT 0-1	Pecsi MFC

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	13	12	1	0	40	4	37
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	13	9	1	3	37	17	28
3	Ivancsa	13	8	0	5	31	24	24
4	Ferencvarosi TC II	13	7	3	3	32	18	24
5	Majosi SE	13	7	3	3	30	27	24
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	13	6	2	5	24	22	20
7	Erdi VSE	13	5	4	4	29	28	19
8	MTK Budapest II	12	6	0	6	31	25	18
9	Budafoki MTE	13	5	3	5	24	22	18
10	BFC Siofok	13	5	2	6	22	18	17
11	PEAC FC	13	4	4	5	17	21	16
12	Paksi SE II	13	3	4	6	28	24	13
13	Budaorsi SC	13	3	3	7	20	40	12
14	Sarbogard SE	13	1	2	10	10	39	5
15	Szekszardi	13	0	0	13	6	52	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paksi SE II	Pecsi MFC
Budaorsi SC	1-1 D	6-0 W
Szekszardi	8-1 W	3-0 W
BFC Siofok	1-3 L	1-0 W
Budafoki MTE	1-2 L	2-1 W
PEAC FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
MTK Budapest II	2-4 L	3-0 W
Kaposvari Rakoczi	1-3 L	1-0 W
Ivancsa	0-2 L	7-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pecsi MFC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paksi SE II

LLLDLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/10	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	6-0	–	–	W
10/10	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/10	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	4-0	8-1	9	2	W
27/09	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	6	7	L
19/09	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/09	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-4	5	3	L
26/08	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
15/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Pecsi MFC

WWWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	4-0	6-0	3	7	W
17/10	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
11/10	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
03/10	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	11	1	W
26/09	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-0	3-0	6	4	W
05/09	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	4	5	W
26/08	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
15/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paksi SE II vs Pecsi MFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pecsi MFC win (67%). Probabilities: Paksi SE II 14%, draw 19%, Pecsi MFC 67%.

How many goals are expected in Paksi SE II vs Pecsi MFC?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Paksi SE II 1.01 · Pecsi MFC 2.39), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Paksi SE II vs Pecsi MFC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.