Football · Hungary NB III · 08/11, 13:00

Prediction: ESMTK vs III Keruleti TUE

Team pages: ESMTK · III Keruleti TUE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

ESMTK1.84

III Keruleti TUE1.08

1X2

55% 23% 22%

ESMTK Draw III Keruleti TUE

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ESMTK 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWWD

III Keruleti TUE 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDDLL

Head-to-head

ESMTK 3–2–1 III Keruleti TUE (6 last)

III Keruleti TUE3-1ESMTK
ESMTK1-0III Keruleti TUE
III Keruleti TUE0-0ESMTK
ESMTK1-0III Keruleti TUE
III Keruleti TUE0-0ESMTK
ESMTK4-1III Keruleti TUE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESMTK 1594 · III Keruleti TUE 1495

	ESMTK	Draw	III Keruleti TUE
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	55%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1594 vs 1495).
H2H favours ESMTK: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESMTK	III Keruleti TUE
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +19’	1.61	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ESMTK 3–2–1 III Keruleti TUE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Hungary NB III	III Keruleti TUE	3-1 HT 2-0	ESMTK
02/11/25 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	1-0 HT 0-0	III Keruleti TUE
20/07/25 Europe Friendlies	III Keruleti TUE	0-0 HT 0-0	ESMTK
06/07/24 Europe Friendlies	ESMTK	1-0 HT 1-0	III Keruleti TUE
10/02/24 Europe Friendlies	III Keruleti TUE	0-0 HT 0-0	ESMTK
15/07/23 Europe Friendlies	ESMTK	4-1 HT 2-1	III Keruleti TUE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	14	13	1	0	45	11	40
2	ESMTK	14	9	4	1	36	14	31
3	III Keruleti TUE	14	8	2	4	17	8	26
4	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	14	6	6	2	27	19	24
5	Ujpest II	14	6	4	4	31	20	22
6	Vasas SC II	14	5	5	4	29	18	20
7	Csepel	14	5	5	4	27	22	20
8	FC Dabas	14	5	3	6	20	31	18
9	Monori SE	14	4	6	4	25	25	18
10	Kispest Honved II	14	4	3	7	26	24	15
11	Bekescsabai Elore SE	14	3	5	6	20	21	14
12	Szolnoki Mav FC	14	3	5	6	29	33	14
13	Sandorfalvi SK	14	3	3	8	9	31	12
14	Hodmezovasarhelyi	14	2	6	6	17	28	12
15	Szegedi VSE	14	2	4	8	19	38	10
16	BKV Elore SC	14	2	2	10	15	49	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESMTK	III Keruleti TUE
Gyulai Termal	1-1 D	0-1 L
Ujpest II	2-1 W	0-0 D
Szolnoki Mav FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Kispest Honved II	3-0 W	0-1 L
Szegedi VSE	4-1 W	1-0 W
FC Dabas	6-0 W	1-0 W
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	1-1 D	1-0 W
Vasas SC II	2-0 W	0-3 L
Bekescsabai Elore SE	3-3 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ESMTK (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESMTK

WDWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
25/10	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
17/10	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
11/10	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	12	4	W
03/10	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
27/09	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	3-0	6-0	2	5	W
20/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
26/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	3-0	3-0	6	3	W

III Keruleti TUE

WLWWWLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Monori SE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
24/10	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
18/10	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
10/10	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
04/10	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
26/09	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/09	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
05/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
30/08	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
26/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESMTK vs III Keruleti TUE?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESMTK win (55%). Probabilities: ESMTK 55%, draw 23%, III Keruleti TUE 22%.

How many goals are expected in ESMTK vs III Keruleti TUE?

The model expects 2.93 goals (ESMTK 1.84 · III Keruleti TUE 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in ESMTK vs III Keruleti TUE?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.