Football · Hungary NB III · 08/11, 13:00

Prediction: Balatonalmadi SE vs Papai Perutz

Team pages: Balatonalmadi SE · Papai Perutz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Balatonalmadi SE1.51

Papai Perutz1.52

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Balatonalmadi SE Draw Papai Perutz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Balatonalmadi SE 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLWLL

Papai Perutz 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Balatonalmadi SE 0–1–0 Papai Perutz (1 last)

Balatonalmadi SE0-0Papai Perutz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Balatonalmadi SE 1433 · Papai Perutz 1431

	Balatonalmadi SE	Draw	Papai Perutz
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Balatonalmadi SE	Papai Perutz
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.7	0.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:19 +21’	2.40	3.60	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Balatonalmadi SE 0–1–0 Papai Perutz

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/24 Hungary Cup	Balatonalmadi SE	0-0 HT 0-0	Papai Perutz

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	14	10	3	1	39	12	33
2	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	14	9	5	0	37	13	32
3	FC Tatabanya	14	9	4	1	32	11	31
4	Komarom VSE	14	7	3	4	23	18	24
5	Sarisapi BSE	14	7	3	4	22	20	24
6	Puskas Academy II	14	7	2	5	32	25	23
7	SC Sopron	15	6	4	5	24	22	22
8	MTE 1904	15	5	7	3	22	16	22
9	Zalaegerszegi TE II	14	6	2	6	29	26	20
10	Bicskei TC	14	6	1	7	28	28	19
11	Veszprem FC	14	4	4	6	27	28	16
12	Györi ETO II	14	4	2	8	17	22	14
13	Kiraly SZE	14	3	4	7	17	28	13
14	Papai Perutz	14	3	2	9	10	27	11
15	Balatonalmadi SE	14	2	2	10	13	42	8
16	1908 SZAC Budapest	14	0	2	12	6	40	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Balatonalmadi SE	Papai Perutz
Zalaegerszegi TE II	2-6 L	1-0 W
Puskas Academy II	1-1 D	0-5 L
SC Sopron	2-1 W	1-3 L
FC Tatabanya	0-4 L	0-1 L
Bicskei TC	2-4 L	0-2 L
Györi ETO II	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Papai Perutz (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Balatonalmadi SE

LLLWDDLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	2-3	2-6	–	–	L
25/10	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
18/10	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	11	5	W
11/10	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
03/10	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	5	7	D
27/09	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	5	7	L
26/08	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
16/08	Györi ETO II Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	–	–	L

Papai Perutz

WLLDLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sarisapi BSE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	4	7	L
17/10	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
10/10	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
03/10	Györi ETO II Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
27/09	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	3	4	L
19/09	MTE 1904 Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	Dorogi FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	2	7	L
26/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Balatonalmadi SE vs Papai Perutz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Balatonalmadi SE win (37%). Probabilities: Balatonalmadi SE 37%, draw 26%, Papai Perutz 37%.

How many goals are expected in Balatonalmadi SE vs Papai Perutz?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Balatonalmadi SE 1.51 · Papai Perutz 1.52), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Balatonalmadi SE vs Papai Perutz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.