Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 19/07, 18:00
Prediction: Independiente del Valle (W) vs LDU Quito (W)
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Independiente del Valle (W)2.19
LDU Quito (W)1.01
1X2
Independiente del Valle (W)
Draw
LDU Quito (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente del Valle (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
LDU Quito (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente del Valle (W)
5–1–0
LDU Quito (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle (W) 1619 · LDU Quito (W) 1598
| Independiente del Valle (W) | Draw | LDU Quito (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle (W) | LDU Quito (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.7 / 0.5 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 57/43/0% | 67/17/17% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 1.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle (W) 5–1–0 LDU Quito (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | LDU Quito (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 20/09/25 Ecuador Primera Women | LDU Quito (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 14/09/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | LDU Quito (W) |
| 22/05/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | LDU Quito (W) |
| 16/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | LDU Quito (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 07/09/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 7-0 HT 2-0 | LDU Quito (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 7 | 41 |
| 2 | LDU Quito (W) | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 5 | 40 |
| 3 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 4 | 38 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 41 | 11 | 31 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 31 | 26 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 23 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 40 | 14 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 61 | 13 |
| 9 | Quito FC (W) | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 50 | 8 |
| 10 | CD Espuce (W) | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 43 | 5 |
| 11 | EL Nacional (W) | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 4 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle (W) | LDU Quito (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 2-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Macara (W) | 6-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Emelec (W) | 13-0 W | 12-0 W |
| CD Espuce (W) | 5-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 0 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/07 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
5-0 | 13-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
LDU Quito (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 12-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle (W) vs LDU Quito (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle (W) 63%, draw 22%, LDU Quito (W) 15%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle (W) vs LDU Quito (W)?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Independiente del Valle (W) 2.19 · LDU Quito (W) 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle (W) vs LDU Quito (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.