Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 25/07, 17:00

Prediction: Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Macara (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Deportivo Ibarra (W)2.23

Macara (W)1.52

1X2

52% 23% 24%

Deportivo Ibarra (W) Draw Macara (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Ibarra (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLLWL

Macara (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Ibarra (W) 3–1–1 Macara (W) (5 last)

Macara (W)2-3Deportivo Ibarra (W)
Macara (W)2-1Deportivo Ibarra (W)
Deportivo Ibarra (W)4-1Macara (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1511 · Macara (W) 1438

	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	Draw	Macara (W)
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	52%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Ibarra (W) (rating 1511 vs 1438).
H2H favours Deportivo Ibarra (W): 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	Macara (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.1	0.8 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	17/0/83%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.8	1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:10 +3’	1.73	3.60	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 3–1–1 Macara (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women	Macara (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	Deportivo Ibarra (W)
09/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women	Macara (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Ibarra (W)
23/04/25 Ecuador Primera Women	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	4-1	Macara (W)
16/06/23 Ecuador Primera Women	Macara (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Ibarra (W)
06/05/23 Ecuador Primera Women	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	4-1 HT 3-1	Macara (W)

Standings · Ecuador Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LDU Quito (W)	16	14	1	1	70	5	43
2	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	16	13	2	1	46	7	41
3	Independiente del Valle (W)	15	12	2	1	62	6	38
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	14	10	1	3	41	11	31
5	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	16	8	2	6	30	31	26
6	Carneras UPS (W)	17	7	2	8	13	26	23
7	Macara (W)	17	4	2	11	18	40	14
8	Emelec (W)	15	4	1	10	11	61	13
9	Quito FC (W)	15	2	2	11	13	50	8
10	CD Espuce (W)	16	1	2	13	11	43	5
11	EL Nacional (W)	13	1	1	11	9	44	4
12	Deportivo Cuenca Women	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	Macara (W)
Carneras UPS (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Emelec (W)	5-0 W	0-2 L
Independiente del Valle (W)	0-2 L	0-6 L
LDU Quito (W)	1-6 L	0-3 L
EL Nacional (W)	3-1 W	3-0 W
CD Espuce (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Quito FC (W)	6-1 W	1-2 L
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	0-5 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Ibarra (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Ibarra (W)

WWLWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/07	Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women	3-0	5-0	5	6	W
08/07	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
05/07	LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-2	1-6	0	4	L
28/06	EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
24/06	CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	6-1	–	–	W
23/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-5	–	–	L
16/05	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
09/05	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	4-1	–	–	W

Macara (W)

LLWLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/07	Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
08/07	Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-2	–	–	L
05/07	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-3	0-6	0	2	L
28/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-6	–	–	L
24/06	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-2	1-2	3	8	L
19/06	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
30/05	EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	3-0	–	–	W
27/05	LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	2-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Macara (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Ibarra (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Deportivo Ibarra (W) 52%, draw 23%, Macara (W) 24%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Macara (W)?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Deportivo Ibarra (W) 2.23 · Macara (W) 1.52), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Macara (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.