Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

LDU Quito (W)1.88

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)1.06

1X2

55% 25% 20%

LDU Quito (W) Draw Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LDU Quito (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWW

Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

LDU Quito (W) 5–1 Barcelona Guayaquil (W) (6 last)

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)0-2LDU Quito (W)
LDU Quito (W)3-0Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)0-2LDU Quito (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LDU Quito (W) 1651 · Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 1558

	LDU Quito (W)	Draw	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (W) (rating 1651 vs 1558).
H2H favours LDU Quito (W): 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LDU Quito (W)	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.9 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	83/17/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.8	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.5	4.8 / 1.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +27’	1.61	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito (W) 5–0–1 Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	LDU Quito (W)
06/09/25 Ecuador Primera Women	LDU Quito (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
29/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	LDU Quito (W)
10/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women	LDU Quito (W)	2-1	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
23/04/25 Ecuador Primera Women	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	1-0	LDU Quito (W)
16/06/24 Ecuador Primera Women	LDU Quito (W)	4-1 HT 2-1	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Standings · Ecuador Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LDU Quito (W)	16	14	1	1	70	5	43
2	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	16	13	2	1	46	7	41
3	Independiente del Valle (W)	15	12	2	1	62	6	38
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	14	10	1	3	41	11	31
5	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	16	8	2	6	30	31	26
6	Carneras UPS (W)	17	7	2	8	13	26	23
7	Macara (W)	17	4	2	11	18	40	14
8	Emelec (W)	15	4	1	10	11	61	13
9	Quito FC (W)	15	2	2	11	13	50	8
10	CD Espuce (W)	16	1	2	13	11	43	5
11	EL Nacional (W)	13	1	1	11	9	44	4
12	Deportivo Cuenca Women	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LDU Quito (W)	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Independiente del Valle (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Emelec (W)	12-0 W	1-0 W
Carneras UPS (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
CD Espuce (W)	5-0 W	5-0 W
Macara (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
Quito FC (W)	3-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LDU Quito (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/07	EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	4-0	14	1	W
05/07	Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women	2-1	6-1	3	4	W
28/06	Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	12-0	–	–	W
23/06	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/05	CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	5-0	–	–	W
27/05	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/05	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-0	2-0	3	7	W

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

DWLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/07	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
09/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
27/06	Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	5-0	–	–	W
24/06	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	2-0	2-1	6	8	W
30/05	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/05	CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	5-0	–	–	W
17/05	LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
09/05	Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	6-0	–	–	W
02/05	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-0	1-1	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito (W) win (55%). Probabilities: LDU Quito (W) 55%, draw 25%, Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 20%.

How many goals are expected in LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)?

The model expects 2.94 goals (LDU Quito (W) 1.88 · Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.