Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 25/07, 21:30

Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Emelec (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.74Total

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)3.37

Emelec (W)1.37

1X2

86% 8% 6%

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Draw Emelec (W)

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWLLW

Emelec (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 3–0 Emelec (W) (3 last)

Emelec (W)0-4Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
Emelec (W)0-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)3-0Emelec (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1567 · Emelec (W) 1419

	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	Draw	Emelec (W)
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	94%	3%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 4.74 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) (rating 1567 vs 1419).
H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W): 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	Emelec (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 4.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.7	0 / 2.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.7	0.5 / 1.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.5	2.8 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.01

X29.00

241.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.95

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 51.98

Under 51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01
X	29.00 → 29.00	Bet365 29.00
2	41.00 → 41.00	Bet365 41.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +30’	1.01	29.00	41.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 3–0–0 Emelec (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women	Emelec (W)	0-4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
09/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women	Emelec (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
23/04/25 Ecuador Primera Women	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Emelec (W)

Standings · Ecuador Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LDU Quito (W)	16	14	1	1	70	5	43
2	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	16	13	2	1	46	7	41
3	Independiente del Valle (W)	15	12	2	1	62	6	38
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	14	10	1	3	41	11	31
5	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	16	8	2	6	30	31	26
6	Carneras UPS (W)	17	7	2	8	13	26	23
7	Macara (W)	17	4	2	11	18	40	14
8	Emelec (W)	15	4	1	10	11	61	13
9	Quito FC (W)	15	2	2	11	13	50	8
10	CD Espuce (W)	16	1	2	13	11	43	5
11	EL Nacional (W)	13	1	1	11	9	44	4
12	Deportivo Cuenca Women	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	Emelec (W)
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
Independiente del Valle (W)	1-2 L	0-13 L
Macara (W)	6-0 W	2-0 W
LDU Quito (W)	1-1 D	0-12 L
Deportivo Ibarra (W)	5-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)

WWLWDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women	4-1	4-1	6	5	W
09/07	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
02/07	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
28/06	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	6-0	–	–	W
24/06	EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women	3-0	8-0	5	0	W
20/06	LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
13/06	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
31/05	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/05	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	5-0	–	–	W

Emelec (W)

LDLLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/07	Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-3	0-5	2	6	L
08/07	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
28/06	LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-12	–	–	L
24/06	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-5	0-13	0	1	L
26/05	Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	3-1	–	–	W
17/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-4	–	–	L
09/05	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	0-6	–	–	L
01/05	Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
24/04	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	1-4	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Emelec (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) win (86%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 86%, draw 8%, Emelec (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Emelec (W)?

The model expects 4.74 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 3.37 · Emelec (W) 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Emelec (W)?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.