Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 13/07, 23:00
Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)1.41
Independiente del Valle (W)1.71
1X2
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Draw
Independiente del Valle (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Independiente del Valle (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
0–3–3
Independiente del Valle (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 1593 · Independiente del Valle (W) 1625
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | Draw | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 26% | 44% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.6 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 2.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 57/43/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.8 | 2.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 1.2 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 0–3–3 Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) |
| 20/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) |
| 15/04/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 0-2 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 21/09/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) |
| 25/08/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) |
| 03/08/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 3 | 37 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 29 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 20 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 13 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | Quito FC (W) | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 4 |
| 11 | EL Nacional (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Macara (W) | 2-1 W | 6-0 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| CD Espuce (W) | 5-0 W | 5-0 W |
| LDU Quito (W) | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Emelec (W) | 6-0 W | 13-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/04 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
5-0 | 13-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 31%, draw 26%, Independiente del Valle (W) 44%.
How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 1.41 · Independiente del Valle (W) 1.71), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.