Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 17/07, 23:00
Prediction: CD Espuce (W) vs Macara (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
CD Espuce (W)1.28
Macara (W)2.05
1X2
CD Espuce (W)
Draw
Macara (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CD Espuce (W)
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Macara (W)
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Espuce (W)
2–1–2
Macara (W)
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Espuce (W) 1414 · Macara (W) 1415
| CD Espuce (W) | Draw | Macara (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Espuce (W) | Macara (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.8 | 1 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/57/43% | 17/0/83% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.6 / 2.3 | 0.7 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Espuce (W) 2–1–2 Macara (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Macara (W) | 3-2 HT 2-1 | CD Espuce (W) |
| 17/05/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Macara (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CD Espuce (W) |
| 12/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | CD Espuce (W) | 3-0 | Macara (W) |
| 25/06/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Macara (W) | 1-3 HT 0-3 | CD Espuce (W) |
| 06/08/22 Ecuador Primera Women | CD Espuce (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Macara (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 4 | 38 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 7 | 38 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 41 | 11 | 31 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 29 | 26 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 20 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 39 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 60 | 13 |
| 9 | Quito FC (W) | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 50 | 7 |
| 10 | CD Espuce (W) | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 42 | 4 |
| 11 | EL Nacional (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Espuce (W) | Macara (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 1-4 L | 0-6 L |
| EL Nacional (W) | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| LDU Quito (W) | 0-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Independiente del Valle (W) | 0-5 L | 0-6 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 0-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Quito FC (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 1 W 0 D 7 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Espuce (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-4 | 1-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/06 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 27/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
Macara (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 05/07 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Espuce (W) vs Macara (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Macara (W) win (54%). Probabilities: CD Espuce (W) 22%, draw 23%, Macara (W) 54%.
How many goals are expected in CD Espuce (W) vs Macara (W)?
The model expects 3.33 goals (CD Espuce (W) 1.28 · Macara (W) 2.05), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Espuce (W) vs Macara (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.