Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: Brasil de Farroupilha vs APAFUT

Team pages: Brasil de Farroupilha · APAFUT

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Brasil de Farroupilha1.23

APAFUT0.98

1X2

40% 32% 28%

Brasil de Farroupilha Draw APAFUT

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Brasil de Farroupilha 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDDWWD

APAFUT 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDLDDWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brasil de Farroupilha 1528 · APAFUT 1533

	Brasil de Farroupilha	Draw	APAFUT
Our model	40%	31%	28%
Market	40%	33%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brasil de Farroupilha	APAFUT
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.75

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:43 +6’	2.25	2.75	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	10	6	2	2	11	5	20
2	Passo Fundo RS	10	5	4	1	13	5	19
3	Uniao Frederiquense	10	5	3	2	10	5	18
4	Santa Cruz RS	10	4	5	1	8	4	17
5	APAFUT	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
6	Aimore RS	10	4	3	3	9	9	15
7	CE Bento Goncalves	10	3	6	1	10	7	15
8	Brasil de Farroupilha	9	3	5	1	10	7	14
9	Brasil de Pelotas	9	3	4	2	8	6	13
10	Sport Clube Gaucho	10	3	2	5	9	9	11
11	EC Pelotas	9	2	5	2	7	9	11
12	Guarani de Venancio Aires	10	2	4	4	9	14	10
13	GE Bage	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
14	Gramadense	10	1	4	5	6	13	7
15	GE Gloria	9	1	3	5	5	10	6
16	Lajeadense	10	0	2	8	3	15	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brasil de Farroupilha	APAFUT
CE Bento Goncalves	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-0 W	1-0 W
Brasil de Pelotas	2-2 D	1-1 D
Guarani de Venancio Aires	3-3 D	2-0 W
Veranopolis	0-0 D	1-2 L
Aimore RS	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: APAFUT (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brasil de Farroupilha

DDLWDDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
06/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
28/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-2	5	9	D
23/08	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
21/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
13/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	2	13	L
06/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

APAFUT

LDWWDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
01/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
15/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	3-0	1	0	W
09/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
05/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
02/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brasil de Farroupilha vs APAFUT?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brasil de Farroupilha win (40%). Probabilities: Brasil de Farroupilha 40%, draw 32%, APAFUT 28%.

How many goals are expected in Brasil de Farroupilha vs APAFUT?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Brasil de Farroupilha 1.23 · APAFUT 0.98), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Brasil de Farroupilha vs APAFUT?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.