Football · Australia Cup · 22/07, 21:00
Prediction: University Azzurri FC vs Macarthur FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.79Total
University Azzurri FC1.39
Macarthur FC3.39
1X2
University Azzurri FC
Draw
Macarthur FC
Markets
Under 5.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
University Azzurri FC
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Macarthur FC
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1650 · Macarthur FC 1470
| University Azzurri FC | Draw | Macarthur FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 3% | 5% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.79 goals · Bet365 line 5.5 · -0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 88%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1650 vs 1470).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University Azzurri FC | Macarthur FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.7 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.6 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University Azzurri FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Macarthur FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 02/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 28/02 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 22/02 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/02 | Bangkok United AFC Champions League Two |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University Azzurri FC vs Macarthur FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Macarthur FC win (84%). Probabilities: University Azzurri FC 7%, draw 9%, Macarthur FC 84%.
How many goals are expected in University Azzurri FC vs Macarthur FC?
The model expects 4.79 goals (University Azzurri FC 1.39 · Macarthur FC 3.39), with a 57% chance of under 5.5 goals.
Will both teams score in University Azzurri FC vs Macarthur FC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.