Football · Australia Cup · 26/07, 09:00
Prediction: Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.18Total
Kingborough Lions1.09
Melbourne Victory3.09
1X2
Kingborough Lions
Draw
Melbourne Victory
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Kingborough Lions
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Melbourne Victory
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kingborough Lions 1609 · Melbourne Victory 1520
| Kingborough Lions | Draw | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 3% | 5% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.18 goals · Bet365 line 5.75 · -1.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kingborough Lions (rating 1609 vs 1520).
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kingborough Lions | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 0.7 | 2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.8 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.5 | 3.1 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.5 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kingborough Lions
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/07 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
7-0 | 9-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
4-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
Melbourne Victory
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 07/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 27/02 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/02 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory win (85%). Probabilities: Kingborough Lions 6%, draw 9%, Melbourne Victory 85%.
How many goals are expected in Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
The model expects 4.18 goals (Kingborough Lions 1.09 · Melbourne Victory 3.09), with a 65% chance of under 5.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.