Football · Australia Cup · 30/07, 11:30
Prediction: South Melbourne vs Adelaide United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
South Melbourne1.27
Adelaide United1.68
1X2
South Melbourne
Draw
Adelaide United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
South Melbourne
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Adelaide United
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Melbourne 1509 · Adelaide United 1563
| South Melbourne | Draw | Adelaide United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide United (rating 1509 vs 1563).
- High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Melbourne | Adelaide United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.7 | 3.1 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Melbourne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/07 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
3-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Auckland FC II OFC Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Adelaide United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Playford Australia Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Cove Australia Friendlies |
4-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 15/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 20/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South Melbourne vs Adelaide United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Adelaide United win (47%). Probabilities: South Melbourne 28%, draw 25%, Adelaide United 47%.
How many goals are expected in South Melbourne vs Adelaide United?
The model expects 2.95 goals (South Melbourne 1.27 · Adelaide United 1.68), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in South Melbourne vs Adelaide United?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.