Football · Australia Cup · 22/07, 11:30
Prediction: Tigers FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.89Total
Tigers FC0.94
Western Sydney Wanderers2.94
1X2
Tigers FC
Draw
Western Sydney Wanderers
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Tigers FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Western Sydney Wanderers
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tigers FC 1576 · Western Sydney Wanderers 1429
| Tigers FC | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 77% |
| Market | 3% | 8% | 89% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tigers FC (rating 1576 vs 1429).
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tigers FC | Western Sydney Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.4 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tigers FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Canberra Croatia FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-0 | 7-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/05 | Monaro Panthers Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
Western Sydney Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 20/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/03 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 07/03 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 28/02 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/02 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/02 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tigers FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Western Sydney Wanderers win (84%). Probabilities: Tigers FC 6%, draw 11%, Western Sydney Wanderers 84%.
How many goals are expected in Tigers FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers?
The model expects 3.89 goals (Tigers FC 0.94 · Western Sydney Wanderers 2.94), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tigers FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.