Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 28/10, 15:00

Prediction: Svoboda Ljubljana vs MNK Izola

Team pages: Svoboda Ljubljana · MNK Izola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4Total

Svoboda Ljubljana1.6

MNK Izola2.39

1X2

25% 21% 54%

Svoboda Ljubljana Draw MNK Izola

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Svoboda Ljubljana 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLWL

MNK Izola 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Svoboda Ljubljana 0–1–1 MNK Izola (2 last)

Svoboda Ljubljana2-2MNK Izola
MNK Izola2-1Svoboda Ljubljana

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MNK Izola (rating 1441 vs 1614).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Svoboda Ljubljana	MNK Izola
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.4	5.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	4.8 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.92

Under 3.751.78

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:03

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	7.98 → 7.98	Pinn 7.98
X	6.55 → 6.55	Pinn 6.55
2	1.17 → 1.17	Pinn 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
04:51 +12’	7.98	6.55	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Svoboda Ljubljana 0–1–1 MNK Izola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	Svoboda Ljubljana	2-2	MNK Izola
25/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	MNK Izola	2-1	Svoboda Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	10	10	0	0	51	7	30
2	ND Idrija	11	8	1	2	19	12	25
3	Roltek DOB	10	7	2	1	26	9	23
4	NK Litija	10	5	3	2	23	8	18
5	NK Sencur	10	4	4	2	17	18	16
6	NK Tolmin	10	4	3	3	18	13	15
7	NK Rudar Trbovlje	10	4	1	5	14	30	13
8	NK Skofja Loka	10	3	3	4	16	21	12
9	NK Adria Miren	10	3	1	6	21	21	10
10	NK Ziri	11	2	4	5	12	15	10
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	10	2	2	6	10	19	8
12	NK Fama Vipava	10	2	1	7	15	42	7
13	NK Sobec Lesce	10	1	4	5	7	16	7
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Svoboda Ljubljana	MNK Izola
NK Ziri	0-3 L	2-1 W
NK Skofja Loka	1-0 W	6-0 W
NK Tolmin	0-2 L	1-0 W
NK Sencur	0-1 L	5-2 W
Roltek DOB	0-4 L	3-0 W
NK Fama Vipava	3-5 L	11-0 W
NK Adria Miren	1-4 L	4-2 W
NK Litija	0-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MNK Izola (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Svoboda Ljubljana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/09	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
19/09	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-3	0-4	8	4	L
12/09	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-5	–	–	L
05/09	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/08	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
23/08	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

MNK Izola

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	11-1	–	–	W
10/10	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	4-1	16	3	W
03/10	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	6-0	–	–	W
19/09	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-2	–	–	W
05/09	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	3-0	2	7	W
29/08	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	11-0	–	–	W
21/08	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	4-2	7	3	W
15/08	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	4-0	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Svoboda Ljubljana vs MNK Izola?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MNK Izola win (54%). Probabilities: Svoboda Ljubljana 25%, draw 21%, MNK Izola 54%.

How many goals are expected in Svoboda Ljubljana vs MNK Izola?

The model expects 4 goals (Svoboda Ljubljana 1.6 · MNK Izola 2.39), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Svoboda Ljubljana vs MNK Izola?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.