Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 31/10, 18:00

Prediction: NK Sencur vs NK Fama Vipava

Team pages: NK Sencur · NK Fama Vipava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

NK Sencur3.11

NK Fama Vipava1.11

1X2

78% 13% 9%

NK Sencur Draw NK Fama Vipava

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Sencur 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWWDL

NK Fama Vipava 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLDL

Head-to-head

NK Sencur 3–2–1 NK Fama Vipava (6 last)

NK Fama Vipava1-1NK Sencur
NK Sencur3-2NK Fama Vipava
NK Fama Vipava5-0NK Sencur
NK Fama Vipava0-2NK Sencur
NK Fama Vipava1-2NK Sencur
NK Fama Vipava3-3NK Sencur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Sencur 1538 · NK Fama Vipava 1425

	NK Sencur	Draw	NK Fama Vipava
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	80%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Sencur (rating 1538 vs 1425).
H2H favours NK Sencur: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Sencur	NK Fama Vipava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.5 / 4.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	0 / 0.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.14▼	Bet365 1.14
X	5.25 → 7.50▲	Pinn 7.84 ★
2	6.50 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:40 +16’	1.30	5.25	6.50
16:43 +5’	1.14▼	7.50▲	12.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:16 +11’	1.16	6.66	9.28
12:21 +35’	1.16▼	6.72▲	9.37▲
16:03 +46’	1.12▼	7.84▲	11.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sencur 3–2–1 NK Fama Vipava

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Sencur
10/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	3-2 HT 1-1	NK Fama Vipava
24/03/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	5-0 HT 3-0	NK Sencur
23/10/22 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Sencur
14/11/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	1-2 HT 1-0	NK Sencur
25/04/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	3-3 HT 1-0	NK Sencur

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	12	11	1	0	54	9	34
2	Roltek DOB	12	8	3	1	31	9	27
3	ND Idrija	12	8	1	3	20	14	25
4	NK Litija	11	6	3	2	26	9	21
5	NK Sencur	12	5	4	3	22	21	19
6	NK Tolmin	11	5	3	3	22	15	18
7	NK Rudar Trbovlje	12	5	1	6	17	32	16
8	NK Skofja Loka	12	4	3	5	18	24	15
9	NK Adria Miren	12	4	1	7	25	26	13
10	NK Ziri	12	3	4	5	14	15	13
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	12	3	3	6	12	20	12
12	NK Fama Vipava	12	2	1	9	16	51	7
13	NK Sobec Lesce	12	1	4	7	7	19	7
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	12	1	2	9	7	27	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Sencur	NK Fama Vipava
NK Adria Miren	1-2 L	1-7 L
NK Sobec Lesce	0-0 D	3-2 W
ND Idrija	4-2 W	2-3 L
Svoboda Ljubljana	1-0 W	5-3 W
NK Rudar Trbovlje	3-0 W	2-3 L
MNK Izola	2-5 L	0-11 L
NK Ziri	0-0 D	1-3 L
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NK Sencur (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Sencur

WDDDLWWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
26/09	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
12/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-5	–	–	L
04/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
14/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W

NK Fama Vipava

LLLWLWLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-5	0	1	L
17/10	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-7	–	–	L
04/10	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-4	–	–	L
26/09	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W
20/09	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-3	–	–	W
06/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-11	–	–	L
23/08	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Sencur vs NK Fama Vipava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Sencur win (78%). Probabilities: NK Sencur 78%, draw 13%, NK Fama Vipava 9%.

How many goals are expected in NK Sencur vs NK Fama Vipava?

The model expects 4.21 goals (NK Sencur 3.11 · NK Fama Vipava 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Sencur vs NK Fama Vipava?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.