Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 08/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Fama Vipava vs NK Tolmin

Team pages: NK Fama Vipava · NK Tolmin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

NK Fama Vipava1.06

NK Tolmin2.68

1X2

12% 17% 71%

NK Fama Vipava Draw NK Tolmin

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Fama Vipava 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLDLL

NK Tolmin 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

NK Fama Vipava 2–2–2 NK Tolmin (6 last)

NK Tolmin0-0NK Fama Vipava
NK Fama Vipava1-2NK Tolmin
NK Fama Vipava0-1NK Tolmin
NK Fama Vipava0-0NK Tolmin
NK Fama Vipava2-1NK Tolmin
NK Fama Vipava5-1NK Tolmin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Fama Vipava 1427 · NK Tolmin 1543

	NK Fama Vipava	Draw	NK Tolmin
Our model	12%	17%	71%
Market	12%	17%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Tolmin (rating 1427 vs 1543).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Fama Vipava	NK Tolmin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 4.3	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 1.5	1 / 1.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.5	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.50

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.98

2 (-1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 10.75 ★
X	5.25 → 5.50▲	Pinn 6.23
2	1.25 → 1.28▲	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +15’	7.50	5.25	1.25
12:02 +11’	6.25▼	5.00▼	1.30▲
14:03 +1’	7.50▲	5.50▲	1.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +2’	7.98	6.50	1.19
12:00 +14’	8.31▲	6.71▲	1.19▲
14:03	10.75▲	6.23▼	1.16▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Fama Vipava 2–2–2 NK Tolmin

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Tolmin	0-0	NK Fama Vipava
02/11/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Tolmin
06/11/22 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Tolmin
20/03/22 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Tolmin
28/04/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Tolmin
23/09/18 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	5-1 HT 2-1	NK Tolmin

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	13	12	1	0	58	10	37
2	Roltek DOB	13	9	3	1	33	9	30
3	ND Idrija	13	9	1	3	24	14	28
4	NK Litija	13	7	3	3	30	11	24
5	NK Tolmin	12	6	3	3	24	15	21
6	NK Sencur	13	5	4	4	22	23	19
7	NK Skofja Loka	13	5	3	5	20	25	18
8	NK Rudar Trbovlje	13	5	1	7	17	36	16
9	NK Adria Miren	13	4	1	8	26	28	13
10	NK Ziri	13	3	4	6	14	19	13
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	13	3	3	7	12	24	12
12	Svoboda Ljubljana	13	2	2	9	11	27	8
13	NK Fama Vipava	12	2	1	9	16	51	7
14	NK Sobec Lesce	13	1	4	8	8	23	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Fama Vipava	NK Tolmin
NK Sencur	1-4 L	3-3 D
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	1-1 D	1-0 W
NK Adria Miren	1-7 L	4-2 W
NK Litija	0-4 L	2-0 W
NK Sobec Lesce	3-2 W	0-1 L
ND Idrija	2-3 L	0-2 L
Svoboda Ljubljana	5-3 W	2-0 W
MNK Izola	0-11 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Tolmin (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Fama Vipava

LLWLWLLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-4	3	4	L
28/10	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-5	0	1	L
17/10	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-7	–	–	L
04/10	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-4	–	–	L
26/09	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W
20/09	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-3	–	–	W
06/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-11	–	–	L

NK Tolmin

DWDWLWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
31/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
17/10	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	4-2	3	5	W
05/09	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Fama Vipava vs NK Tolmin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Tolmin win (71%). Probabilities: NK Fama Vipava 12%, draw 17%, NK Tolmin 71%.

How many goals are expected in NK Fama Vipava vs NK Tolmin?

The model expects 3.75 goals (NK Fama Vipava 1.06 · NK Tolmin 2.68), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Fama Vipava vs NK Tolmin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.