Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: NK Ziri vs NK Sobec Lesce

Team pages: NK Ziri · NK Sobec Lesce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

NK Ziri1.61

NK Sobec Lesce1.1

1X2

49% 25% 26%

NK Ziri Draw NK Sobec Lesce

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Ziri 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDLLWL

NK Sobec Lesce 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLLDWL

Head-to-head

NK Ziri 2–3–1 NK Sobec Lesce (6 last)

NK Sobec Lesce2-1NK Ziri
NK Ziri1-1NK Sobec Lesce
NK Ziri1-0NK Sobec Lesce
NK Sobec Lesce1-1NK Ziri
NK Sobec Lesce1-2NK Ziri
NK Sobec Lesce0-0NK Ziri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Ziri 1456 · NK Sobec Lesce 1444

	NK Ziri	Draw	NK Sobec Lesce
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Ziri: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Ziri	NK Sobec Lesce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.80

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +8’	1.80	3.80	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Ziri 2–3–1 NK Sobec Lesce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sobec Lesce	2-1 HT 1-1	NK Ziri
06/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ziri	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Sobec Lesce
03/09/25 Slovenia Cup	NK Ziri	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Sobec Lesce
24/08/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sobec Lesce	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Ziri
16/09/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sobec Lesce	1-2 HT 0-2	NK Ziri
27/05/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sobec Lesce	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Ziri

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	11	10	1	0	52	8	31
2	Roltek DOB	11	8	2	1	31	9	26
3	ND Idrija	11	8	1	2	19	12	25
4	NK Litija	10	5	3	2	23	8	18
5	NK Sencur	11	4	4	3	18	20	16
6	NK Tolmin	10	4	3	3	18	13	15
7	NK Skofja Loka	11	4	3	4	17	21	15
8	NK Rudar Trbovlje	11	4	1	6	15	32	13
9	NK Adria Miren	11	4	1	6	23	22	13
10	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	11	3	2	6	12	20	11
11	NK Ziri	11	2	4	5	12	15	10
12	NK Fama Vipava	11	2	1	8	15	47	7
13	NK Sobec Lesce	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	11	1	2	8	7	25	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Ziri	NK Sobec Lesce
ND Idrija	0-1 L	1-2 L
Svoboda Ljubljana	3-0 W	1-1 D
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	0-0 D	1-4 L
NK Skofja Loka	1-1 D	0-1 L
NK Tolmin	2-4 L	1-0 W
NK Sencur	0-0 D	0-0 D
Roltek DOB	0-3 L	0-3 L
NK Fama Vipava	3-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NK Ziri (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Ziri

WLDLDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/10	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
10/10	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-4	2	5	L
04/09	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
23/08	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-1	5	5	W

NK Sobec Lesce

DLLDLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/10	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
26/09	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-3	–	–	L
19/09	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
23/08	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Ziri vs NK Sobec Lesce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Ziri win (49%). Probabilities: NK Ziri 49%, draw 25%, NK Sobec Lesce 26%.

How many goals are expected in NK Ziri vs NK Sobec Lesce?

The model expects 2.71 goals (NK Ziri 1.61 · NK Sobec Lesce 1.1), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Ziri vs NK Sobec Lesce?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.